011
AXNT20 KNHC 252139
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC FRI JUN 26 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING:
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE
COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CAUSE TRADEWINDS OFF COLOMBIA AND OVER THE GULF
OF VENEZUELA TO PEAK AT MINIMAL GALE-FORCE FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT
MORNING. SEAS UNDER THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN
12-15 FT NORTH OF COLOMBIA AND 4-7 FT IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA.
PLEASE REFER TO HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 40W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WESTWARD AT 15-20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 00N-13N BETWEEN 33W-46W.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 71W FROM DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC SOUTHWARD INTO VENEZUELA, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15-20 KT.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THIS WAVE THIS
AFTERNOON.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 83W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD
ALONG COASTAL NICARAGUA. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 5-10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 11N-16N WEST OF
82W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 14N17W NEAR COASTAL
GAMBIA AND EXTENDS TO 07N20W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N20W TO
06N36W. IT BEGINS AGAIN AT 05N41W TO 04N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 00N-13N BETWEEN 33W-46W AND FROM
03N-08N BETWEEN 21W-26W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
GENTLE TO MODERATE OR WEAKER E TO SE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS
PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 25N-27N EAST OF 83W.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE GULF
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS
WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THIS TIME, EXCEPT
FOR FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS PULSING OFF THE
NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NIGHTLY, AND MODERATE TO FRESH SE
TO S WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOOKING AHEAD, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTHWARD INTO
THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF MON NIGHT AND TUE.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT AN UPCOMING GALE
WARNING, AND PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR
DETAILS ON CONVECTION IN THE BASIN.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC
AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, AS WELL AS SEAS OF 8-9 FT IN THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL TO SW CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL IN THE E CARIBBEAN, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND 2-5 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS, AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH SAT MORNING. EXPECT WINDS AT NEAR-GALE FORCE OFFSHORE OF
COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. ON FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING, WINDS OFF
COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA WILL PEAK AT MINIMAL GALE-
FORCE. PULSING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NIGHTLY THROUGH SAT
NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CENTERED AT 31N63W IS HELPING TO ENHANCE
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 60W-70W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY RIDGING, SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE HISPANIOLA,
INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, EACH LATE AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A NEARLY NORTH-TO-SOUTH ALIGNED
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION FRI THROUGH SUN, REACHING NEAR 70W BY SUN
MORNING. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND LEAD TO DIMINISHING WINDS.
LOOKING AHEAD, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE
WATERS OFF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA MON NIGHT.
LANDSEA/ADAMS
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