146
AXNT20 KNHC 261641
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC FRI JUN 26 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING:
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE
COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CAUSE TRADE WINDS OFF COLOMBIA AND OVER THE
GULF OF VENEZUELA TO PEAK AT MINIMAL GALE-FORCE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SAT MORNING, AND SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING AGAIN. SEAS
UNDER THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN 12 TO 15 FT NORTH
OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE REFER TO HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS FROM 01N30W TO
10N26W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 25W
AND 35W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS FROM 04N51W TO
17N44W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 03N TO 14N BETWEEN 43W
AND 53W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 78W FROM 10N SOUTHWARD, MOVING
WESTWARD AT AROUND 20 KT. THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING STRONG
CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND COLOMBIA AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT
WATERS.
THE WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
IN THIS DISCUSSION HAS SINCE CROSSED OVER INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR INFORMATION ON THAT WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W AND CONTINUES TO 07N26W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 05N29W TO 03N46W. PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR
DETAILS ON CONVECTION.
..GULF OF AMERICA
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AS WELL AS ALONG THE COAST OF FL FROM THE KEYS TO THE FL
PANHANDLE, WHILE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL IN THE REST OF
THE GULF WATERS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE-S WINDS ARE FOUND IN
THE GULF W OF 90W, AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SEAS IN THESE
WATERS ARE 3-4 FT. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT
SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF REGION
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS
WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THIS TIME, EXCEPT
FOR FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS PULSING OFF THE
NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NIGHTLY, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH SE TO S WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF MON NIGHT AND TUE.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT AN UPCOMING GALE
WARNING OFF COLOMBIA.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE
ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS RESULTS IN FRESH
TO NEAR GALE-FORCE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE PRESENT IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS COMBINED WITH THE
COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
AND ROUGH TO LOCALLY VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL PULSE TO GALE-FORCE
OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA, AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA DURING THE
NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TONIGHT AND AGAIN SAT.
ELSEWHERE, PULSING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY
ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NIGHTLY THROUGH
SAT NIGHT. MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
24N BETWEEN 56W AND 62W. ELSEWHERE, A BROAD ATLANTIC RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 34N49W SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRESH TO
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE HISPANIOLA, INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE,
EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A NEARLY NORTH-
TO-SOUTH ALIGNED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUN, REACHING NEAR 70W BY
SUN MORNING. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND LEAD TO DIMINISHING
WINDS. LOOKING AHEAD, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD INTO
THE WATERS OFF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA MON NIGHT.
ADAMS
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