380
AXNT20 KNHC 262321
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SAT JUN 27 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE OVER
COLOMBIA WILL LEAD TO THE TRADE WINDS OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA AND
IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA TO PEAK AT MINIMAL GALE-FORCE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING, AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.
LATEST SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA IS ALREADY DEPICTING TRADE
WINDS OF NEAR GALE-FORCE OVER THESE WATERS. THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO PRODUCE SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 12 TO 15 FT NORTH OF
COLOMBIA. LATEST ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA IS ALREADY INDICATING
SEAS PEAKING THERE TO ABOUT 13 FT. IN ADDITION, BUOY 42058 AT THE
LOCATION OF 15N75W IS CURRENTLY REPORTING SEAS OF 13 FT. PLEASE
REFER TO HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING FROM
01N31W TO 10N26W. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. INCREASED
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM
05N TO 08N BETWEEN THE WAVE AND 39W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING FROM
05N53W TO 12N50W AND TO 18N44W. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 15
KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED FROM
05N TO 13N BETWEEN THE WAVE AND 55W, AND ALSO EAST OF THE WAVE
TO NEAR 49W FROM 06N TO 10N.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 80W SOUTH OF 18N TO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 06N80W MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT.
THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN PANAMA AND ITS ADJACENT WATERS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W, AND EXTENDS SOUTHWEST TO 10N22W AND TO
06N27.5W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N30W TO 03N40W AND TO 03N46W.
PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON CONVECTION.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A RATHER WEAK AND BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS
WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA, AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. THE ASSOCIATED GRADIENT IS GENERALLY
PROVIDING FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR FRESH EAST WINDS OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BASIN AND IN THE EASTERN BAY
OF CAMPECHE. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 2 TO 4 FT EAST OF 91W
AND 3 TO 5 FT WEST OF 91W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER SOME AREAS OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
EASTERN GULF WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
GULF REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN DURING
THIS TIME, EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS PULSING OFF THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NIGHTLY,
AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE
NW GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF MON NIGHT
AND TUE.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT UPCOMING GALE
CONDITIONS OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE
ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS AND IN NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA IS BRINGING FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE TRADE WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR LIGHTER
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH TO LOCALLY VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL PULSE
TO GALE-FORCE OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA, AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA
DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TONIGHT AND AGAIN
SAT. ELSEWHERE, PULSING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NIGHTLY
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE LATE SAT AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUN. MODERATE OR LIGHTER
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR 31N58W TO 26N60W AND TO NEAR
19N59W. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD IS NEAR 29N61.5W
AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVIDENT NORTH OF 24.5N BETWEEN 56W AND 62W.
OTHERWISE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RATHER BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH ANALYZED NORTH
OF THE AREA NEAR 35N49W AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN THE DEEP
TROPICS IS ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH
MODERATE SEAS OVER MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AS CAPTURED IN
THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES.
IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN WEST AFRICA IS BRINGING
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO THE WATERS OFFSHORE THE COAST OF AFRICA
FROM 18N TO 22.5N BETWEEN THE COAST AND ABOUT 22W. SEAS ARE 6 TO
8 FT WITH THESE WINDS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE
HISPANIOLA, INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, EACH
LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A NEARLY NORTH TO
SOUTH ALIGNED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUN, REACHING NEAR 70W
BY SUN MORNING. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE RESULTING IN
DIMINISHING WINDS. LOOKING AHEAD, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP
SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS OFF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA MON NIGHT.
AGUIRRE
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