881
AXNT20 KNHC 142315
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC WED JUL 15 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC ALONG
21W, SOUTH OF 18N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 05.5N TO 13N AND E OF
27W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 18N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07N40W. THE
ITCZ THEN CONTINUES FROM 07N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
01.5N50W. CONVECTION NEAR BOTH FEATURES IS DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES, FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO NEAR THE
GEORGIA-SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. AN EAST TO WEST UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THIS SAME AREA IS COMBINING WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DIURNAL HEATING TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS NORTH OF 27N.
A SURFACE COASTAL TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TO NEAR
TAMPICO SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SW
GULF. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS
FLORIDA AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS OFF YUCATAN AND IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
OCCURRING NORTH OF 29N. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STATIONARY FRONT WILL PREVAIL JUST N OF THE
AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK, ENHANCING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF WATERS. MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS NEAR THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. FRESH TO
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL PULSE OFFSHORE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
EACH NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE
ANCHORED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ALONG 26N-27N AND LOWER PRESSURES
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG TO NEAR GALE-
FORCE EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO 11 FT IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
ARE OCCURRING IN THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MEANWHILE, MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN, THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ARE PREVALENT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE
AREA BETWEEN THE W COAST OF JAMAICA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS, AND
IS STRONGEST ALONG THE NE COASTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THIS
WEATHER IS OCCURRING BEHIND AN EXITING TROPICAL WAVE, AND
SUPPORTED BY DIVERGENCE ALOFT, TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE BASIN AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA
WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEK. ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL WITH
THESE WINDS. EAST WINDS WILL PULSE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EACH
EVENING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND WINDWARD PASSAGE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
AN EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC,
EXTENDING FROM 40W ALONG 26N-27N TO FLORIDA, AND SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF THE SE BAHAMAS AND
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. 1015 MB LOW PRES NEAR 33.5N21W EXTENDS A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD TO 26N38W. A NARROW RIDGE EXTENDS BETWEEN
MORROCCO AND THE FRONT, AND SUPPORTS FRESH NE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF AFRICA TO THE CABO VERDES BETWEEN 13N AND 28N. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL SOUTH OF 22N AND WEST OF 30W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAHAMAS TO NEAR 31N74W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM
22N68W TO 29N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING ALONG AND WITHIN 100 NM OF BOTH TROUGH AXES. CONVECTION
IS SUPPRESSED ELSEWHERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN DUE TO A LARGE
PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST AND MID-LATITUDE DRY AIR.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
DOMINANT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES SOUTH OF 23N, WITH GENTLE WINDS
TO THE NORTH. PULSING STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT
OFFSHORE HISPANIOLA AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
STRIPLING
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