943
AXNT20 KNHC 150938
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC WED JUL 15 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BASIN AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA WILL SUPPORT PULSING NE WINDS TO GALE-FORCE ACROSS
THE WATERS N OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRI
NIGHT. ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL WITH THESE WINDS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W, SOUTH OF 18N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 14N AND EAST OF 30W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 20N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 09N35W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N35W TO 05N52W. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE CONVECTION NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES, FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. AN
EAST TO WEST UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THIS SAME AREA IS COMBINING WITH
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS NORTH OF 25N. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS
FOUND IN THE E GULF WATERS.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA
AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
FRESH NE-E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS OFF YUCATAN AND IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STATIONARY FRONT WILL PREVAIL JUST N OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEK, ENHANCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF WATERS. MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS NEAR THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL PULSE
OFFSHORE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE GALE WARNING IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND LOWER PRESSURES IN NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE
OCCURRING IN THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE,
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED IN
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN WEST OF JAMAICA AND
SOUTH OF 20N. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE ALONG THE NE COASTS OF
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THESE STORMS CAN PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO
NEAR GALE-FORCE, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SUDDENLY HIGHER SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, PULSING NE WINDS TO GALE-FORCE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
FRI NIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.
ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL WITH THESE WINDS. EAST WINDS WILL PULSE
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EACH EVENING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND
WINDWARD PASSAGE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO
THE COAST OF GEORGIA, WITHIN 30N TO 32N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED NORTH OF 27N AND BETWEEN 55W AND 65W. MODERATE TO FRESH SW
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT IN THOSE WATERS. CONVECTION IS
SUPPRESSED ELSEWHERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN DUE TO A LARGE
PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST AND MID-LATITUDE DRY AIR.
THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE BASIN,
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF THE SE
BAHAMAS AND BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF 22N AND WEST OF 35W TO
THE LESSER ANTILLES. MEANWHILE, IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC, FRESH
TO STRONG SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-8 FT ARE EVIDENT SOUTH OF 10N
AND EAST OF 27W. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
DOMINANT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES SOUTH OF 23N, WITH GENTLE WINDS
TO THE NORTH. PULSING STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT
OFFSHORE HISPANIOLA AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
ERA
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