790
AXNT20 KNHC 151650
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC WED JUL 15 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1649 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BASIN AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA WILL SUPPORT PULSING NE WINDS TO GALE-FORCE ACROSS
THE WATERS N OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRI
NIGHT. ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL WITH THESE WINDS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26.5W, SOUTH OF 18N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02.5N TO 10N BETWEEN 24W AND 29W.
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA; THE
WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 17.5W AND SOUTH OF 16N. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE, A
WEAK 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH.
NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM 06N TO 13N AND EAST
OF 24W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 19N17W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 11N19.5W TO 09N35W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N35W TO 07N55W. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE CONVECTION NEAR MONSOON TROUGH.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST. AN
EAST TO WEST UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THIS SAME AREA IS COMBINING WITH
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS NORTH OF 21N AND WEST OF 90W.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA
AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS SOUTH OF 24N. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
WILL PULSE OFFSHORE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH NIGHT. MAINLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND SLIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SEAS,
WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE GALE WARNING IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND LOWER PRESSURES IN NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE
OCCURRING IN THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE,
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED IN
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE LEE OF CUBA. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
PREVALENT.
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 20.5N AND WEST
OF 82.5W. THESE STORMS CAN PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR GALE-
FORCE, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SUDDENLY HIGHER SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE BASIN AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT PULSING NE
WINDS TO GALE- FORCE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. OTHERWISE, STRONG TO NEAR- GALE TRADE WINDS,
AND ROUGH SEAS, WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. EAST WINDS WILL PULSE FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG EACH EVENING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND
WINDWARD PASSAGE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO 30N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NORTH OF 28N AND BETWEEN
51W AND 63W. MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
PRESENT IN THOSE WATERS. CONVECTION IS SUPPRESSED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE BASIN DUE TO A LARGE PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST AND MID-
LATITUDE DRY AIR.
THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE BASIN,
SUPPORTING MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF THE SE BAHAMAS
AND BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 35W AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES. MEANWHILE, IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC, FRESH TO
STRONG SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-8 FT ARE EVIDENT SOUTH OF 10N AND
EAST OF 21W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS AND SEAS 3 TO 6 FT
PREVAIL BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
DOMINANT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES SOUTH OF 23N, WITH GENTLE WINDS
TO THE NORTH. PULSING STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT
OFFSHORE HISPANIOLA AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
KRV
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