044
AXNT20 KNHC 160535
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC THU JUL 16 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0525 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BASIN AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL PULSE TO GALE-FORCE ACROSS THE
WATERS N OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS SHOWED WINDS TO 34 KT OFF NW
COLOMBIA. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL WITH THESE WINDS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED ALONG 20W,
SOUTH OF 16N BASED ON SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA FROM A FEW
HOURS AGO. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 05N TO 15N AND EAST
OF 28W AND REMAIN DISORGANIZED. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. BY THIS WEEKEND, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO A LESS CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT, AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS ALONG
21W AND SOUTH OF 16N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. A 1014 MB
LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N. AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN ABOUT 120
NM NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER
DATA INDICATE THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW AS WELL AS AND AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE LOW CENTER AFFECTING THE WATERS N OF 05N BETWEEN 16W AND
21W. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE
HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
SOME ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD. AFTER
THAT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BY THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W, SOUTH OF
18N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KT. CONVECTION IS LIMITED NEAR THE WAVE
AXIS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO A 1013 MB LOW
PRES NEAR 12N20W TO 09N32W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N32W TO
05N52W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 21N, NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EVIDENT.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
SUPPORTS MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN AND SE GULF. SEAS ARE 3-5 FT IN THESE WATERS. IN THE REST
OF THE BASIN, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE PRESENT NORTH OF YUCATAN AND IN THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE, WHILE DRIER CONDITIONS ARE NOTED IN THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE OFFSHORE THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH NIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND SLIGHT
TO LOCALLY MODERATE SEAS, WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM THIS
WEEKEND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF AMERICA. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND NEAR THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE
OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE, REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR
MORE DETAILS.
THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FORCES STRONG TO GALE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING OFF COLOMBIA AND IN
THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND IN
THESE WATERS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE NOTED IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND GULF OF HONDURAS. MEANWHILE,
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT IN
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE
IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, PARTICULARLY IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS. GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HIGHER SEAS ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE BASIN AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT PULSING NE WINDS TO
GALE-FORCE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH SAT
NIGHT. OTHERWISE, STRONG TO NEAR-GALE TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EAST WINDS WILL PULSE FRESH TO STRONG EACH EVENING IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS AND WINDWARD PASSAGE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING
A FEW SHOWERS WEST OF 72W AND NORTH OF 28N. THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD HIGH PRESSURE. MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE SE
BAHAMAS AND NORTH OF HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA. MAINLY MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF 22N AND
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. MEANWHILE, IN THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG AND SEAS OF 5-8 FT ARE
NOTED NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND EAST OF 23W. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-8 FT ARE EVIDENT SOUTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND EAST OF 23W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
DOMINANT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES SOUTH OF 23N, WITH GENTLE WINDS
TO THE NORTH. PULSING STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT
OFFSHORE HISPANIOLA AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
DELGADO
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