898
AXNT20 KNHC 171729
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC FRI JUL 17 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1651 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN CENTRAL
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BASIN AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL PULSE TO GALE-
FORCE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH SAT
NIGHT. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS 12 TO 14 FT WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE TIMES OF PEAK WINDS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A WELL DEFINED EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG
22.5W, SOUTH OF 18N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 5-10 KT. RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGEST A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS
LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 13N22W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 09.5N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 19W
AND 25W. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME EVEN LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE WEEKEND, WHILE IT MOVES WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THE DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43.5W, SOUTH OF 18N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15-20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS DEPICTED
WITH THIS WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 20N17W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 13N22W TO 09N42W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N47W TO 09N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 26W AND 34W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 49.5W AND
58W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE OF THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, AND IS FORCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AS SHOWN BY RECENT
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS AREA 3 TO 6 FT ACROSS THIS
AREA. MODERATE E-SE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE REMAINDER OF THE
WESTERN WATERS, WHERE SEAS ARE 2-5 FT. NORTH AND NEAR THE HIGH,
GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS AND 2 TO 3 FT SEAS PREVAIL.
ELSEWHERE, SLIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL. UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST GULF IS SUPPORTING A CLUSTER
OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE W COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
25N TO 28N AND WEST OF 85.5W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS FROM CABO
ROJO TO OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH EARLY MON. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE
OFFSHORE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING AND NIGHT. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS, AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS, WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NE GULF THROUGH SUN.
LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM THIS
WEEKEND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF AMERICA. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE WHILE IT MEANDERS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF, NORTHERN FLORIDA, OR THE EXTREME WESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCE OF
FORMATION THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS IS LOW.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 14 FT IN THE
AREA PRESENTLY. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR
MORE DETAILS.
THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PERSISTS NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA, FORCING STRONG TO NEAR-GALE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING OFF COLOMBIA
AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND
IN THESE WATERS. FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED IN
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND GULF OF HONDURAS. MEANWHILE, MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ORIENTED ALONG 27N AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL
SUPPORT NE WINDS PULSING TO GALE-FORCE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF
COLOMBIA TONIGHT AND SAT NIGHT. OTHERWISE, STRONG TO NEAR- GALE
FORCE TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY MON BEFORE CONTRACTING TO SOUTH
OF 15N THROUGH TUE. EAST WINDS WILL PULSE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
EACH EVENING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
AN EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NORTH OF 24N, ANCHORED BY 1025 MB CENTERED NEAR 28N49W
AND EXTENDS WESTWARD TO THE BAHAMAS. SAHARAN DUST AND MID-
LATITUDE DRY AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE BASIN, SUPPRESSING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FRESH EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING OFF THE SE BAHAMAS, HAITI
AND EASTERN CUBA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT SOUTH OF 24N AND WEST OF 30W TO THE
LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
NOTED FROM OFFSHORE OF CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
BERMUDA.
MEANWHILE, IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-7 FT ARE NOTED NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
AND EAST OF 32W. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-8
FT ARE EVIDENT SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND EAST OF 26W.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WESTWARD ALONG 27N AND WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD THROUGH SUN NIGHT, THEN WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
BROAD SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS BETWEEN 50W AND 60W AND SHIFTS
WESTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES SOUTH OF 24N SUN NIGHT, AND GENTLE WINDS
TO THE NORTH. PULSING STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH EVENING AND
NIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF HISPANIOLA AND IN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE.
KRV
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