272
AXNT20 KNHC 190525
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SUN JUL 19 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0505 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY MON,
BEFORE BECOMING CONFINED TO SOUTH OF 15N. WINDS WILL PULSE TO
GALE FORCE OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT. ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS, PEAKING AROUND 14 FT, WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
TIMES OF PEAK WINDS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
NE GULF OF AMERICA (INVEST AL91): RECENT SATELLITE-WIND DATA AND
NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF AMERICA IS SLOWLY BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED. HOWEVER, ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND ROUGH SEAS. MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THIS AREA. REGARDLESS, GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM
FLORIDA, ALABAMA, MISSISSIPPI, TO LOUISIANA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF THAT REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM LATER TODAY, IF NECESSARY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS BEEN
REPOSITIONED ALONG 32W, SOUTH OF 19N, BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE
AND SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED NEAR THIS WAVE DUE TO DRY
SAHARAN AIR.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W, SOUTH OF 18N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE PRESENT FROM 07N TO
13N AND BETWEEN 55W AND 63W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
CABO VERDE ISLANDS TO 15N30W AND THEN TO 07N44W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 07N44W TO 07N58W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT WITHIN 120 NM ON
BOTH SIDES OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ WEST OF 40W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF THAT HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE, DRY AIR DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A 1019
MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NW GULF WATERS SUPPORTS MODERATE TO
FRESH NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE,
WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, BROAD LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED OFFSHORE OF TAMPA
BAY, FLORIDA NEAR 84.5W, AND WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE NE GULF
AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF FLORIDA. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, MARINERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. AWAY
FROM THIS SYSTEM, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE, PRODUCING
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE 1027 MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 29N58W IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FORCES STRONG TO GALE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING OFF
COLOMBIA. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND IN THESE WATERS.
MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD PASSAGE. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT. A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA ARE ALSO AFFECTING THE NEARSHORE WATERS. GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ORIENTED ALONG 28N, AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW
WILL SUPPORT NE WINDS PULSING TO GALE-FORCE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF
COLOMBIA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, STRONG TO NEAR- GALE FORCE TRADE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY MON, BEFORE CONTRACTING TO SOUTH OF 15N. EAST
WINDS WILL PULSE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EACH EVENING THIS
WEEKEND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE
NORTH- CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC COMBINE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS NORTH OF 20N AND BETWEEN 36W AND 52W. MEANWHILE, A BROAD
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FORCES FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OFF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA AS
SHOWN IN A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS. ELSEWHERE IN THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC, MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS OF 4-8 FT ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 45W.
THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N-NE WINDS
AND SEAS OF 4-8 FT ARE PRESENT NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
EAST OF 22W. IN THE REST OF THE BASIN, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 28N TONIGHT AND WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH FORMS
E OF 50W. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND REACH 65W BY WED.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL S OF 24N THROUGH TUE, WITH
GENTLE WINDS TO THE N. PULSING STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE EVENINGS THROUGH TUE N OF HISPANIOLA AND IN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS N OF 22N AND E OF 70W
TUE THROUGH WED AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES.
DELGADO
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