020
AXNT20 KNHC 190940
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SUN JUL 19 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT GALE-FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
THROUGH NEAR SUNRISE THIS MORNING, AND STRONG TO NEAR- GALE FORCE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
INTO EARLY MON, BEFORE BECOMING CONFINED TO SOUTH OF 15N THROUGH
MIDWEEK. WINDS WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF
COLOMBIA TONIGHT. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS, PEAKING AT 12 TO 13
FT, WILL DEVELOP DURING THE TIMES OF PEAK WINDS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
NE GULF OF AMERICA (INVEST AL91): RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER WIND
DATA AND NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF AMERICA IS SLOWLY
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. HOWEVER, ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND DISPLACED WELL THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST OF THE LOW. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND ROUGH SEAS. MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THIS AREA. REGARDLESS, GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM
FLORIDA, ALABAMA, MISSISSIPPI, TO LOUISIANA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF THAT REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM LATER TODAY, IF NECESSARY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS NOW ALONG
34W, SOUTH OF 19N, BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE AND SCATTEROMETER
DATA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED NEAR THIS WAVE DUE TO DRY SAHARAN AIR.
AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W, SOUTH OF 18N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE
WAVE ALONG THE ITCZ, FROM 10N TO 12.5N AND BETWEEN 57W AND 62W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
CABO VERDE ISLANDS TO 15N30W AND THEN TO 06.5N42.5W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 06.5N42.5W TO 07N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 07.5N TO 14.5N
AND E OF 18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND N OF THE ITCZ
FROM 06.5N TO 09.5N BETWEEN 41W AND 57W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF THAT HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A 1012 MB
LOW CENTER IS ANALYZED NEAR 27.5N 85.5W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY.
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING IN BROKEN BANDS FROM 120 TO 300 NM AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW, EXCEPT FOR THE N SEMICIRCLE. RECENT
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA SHOWED STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO
NEAR 30 KT IN SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS ARE ESTIMATED AT
2 TO 5 FT ACROSS THIS AREA.
ELSEWHERE, DRY AIR DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A 1018
MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NW GULF WATERS SUPPORTS MODERATE TO
FRESH NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE,
WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
REGARDLESS, THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE NE GULF AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. AWAY FROM THIS
SYSTEM, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE, PRODUCING GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE. PLEASE REFER TO
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE 1024 MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 28.5N59W IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS WESTWARD TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE IS FORCING STRONG
TO NEAR-GALE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN,
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING OFF COLOMBIA. ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND IN THESE WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND
WINDWARD PASSAGE. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA HAVE
SHIFTED INLAND, WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ORIENTED ALONG 28N, AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW
WILL SUPPORT NE WINDS PULSING TO GALE-FORCE ACROSS THE WATERS N
OF COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, STRONG TO
NEAR- GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO SUN NIGHT, BEFORE
CONTRACTING TO SOUTH OF 15N MON THROUGH THU. EAST WINDS WILL
PULSE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EACH EVENING THROUGH TUE IN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE
NORTH- CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC COMBINE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS NORTH OF 23N AND BETWEEN 37W AND 53W. MEANWHILE, A BROAD
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FORCES FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OFF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA AS
SHOWN IN A RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA. ELSEWHERE IN THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC, MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND
SEAS OF 4-8 FT ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF 24N AND WEST OF 45W,
WITH HIGHEST SEAS TO 8 FT E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE
WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-8 FT ARE PRESENT NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
AND EAST OF 25W. IN THE REST OF THE BASIN, MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ALONG 28N-29N THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH FORMS E OF 50W.
THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND REACH 65W BY WED, THEN MOVE W
OF 70W AND WEAKEN QUICKLY THU. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL
PREVAIL S OF 24N THROUGH TUE, WITH GENTLE WINDS TO THE N. PULSING
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EVENINGS THROUGH TUE N OF
HISPANIOLA AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS
AND SEAS N OF 22N AND E OF 70W TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES.
STRIPLING
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