701
AXNT20 KNHC 191649
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SUN JUL 19 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
NE GULF OF AMERICA (INVEST AL91/T.D. TWO): RECENT SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA AND NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
AMERICA IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. THEREFORE, AL91 HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. T.D. TWO IS CENTERED NEAR
28.0N 85.3W AT 19/1500 UTC OR 130 NM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA,
MOVING NNW AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION PREVAILS FROM 23N TO 29N
BETWEEN 81W AND 90W. ESTIMATED SEAS TO 5 FT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NE GULF. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE NEAR
OR ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST TWO
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS NOW ALONG 35W, SOUTH
OF 19N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS NOTED NEAR THIS WAVE DUE TO DRY SAHARAN AIR.
AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W, SOUTH OF 18N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
AFRICA NEAR 20N17W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 09N41W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N41W TO 06N57W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION
RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE DESCRIBED ABOVE, NO CONVECTION IS
NOTED AT THIS TIME.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
THE RECENTLY UPGRADED T.D. TWO.
ELSEWHERE, DRY AIR DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A 1017
MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NW GULF WATERS SUPPORTS MODERATE TO
FRESH NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE,
WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, T.D. TWO WILL MOVE TO 28.2N 85.4W THIS EVENING,
THEN STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 28.5N 85.7W MON MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM TWO WILL BE NEAR 28.8N 86.0W MON EVENING, 29.1N
86.4W TUE MORNING, 29.4N 87.3W TUE EVENING, AND 29.7N 88.4W WED
MORNING. T.D. TWO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES
NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST EARLY THU. AWAY FROM THIS SYSTEM, WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE, PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 29N61W IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS WESTWARD TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE IS FORCING STRONG TO
NEAR-GALE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING OFF COLOMBIA. ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND
IN THESE WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE PRESENT IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD PASSAGE.
ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
PREVALENT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA HAVE SHIFTED INLAND, WHILE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ORIENTED ALONG 28N, AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW
WILL SUPPORT NE WINDS PULSING TO NEAR GALE-FORCE ACROSS THE
WATERS N OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO
MON, BEFORE CONTRACTING TO SOUTH OF 15N THROUGH THU. EAST WINDS
WILL PULSE FRESH TO STRONG EACH EVENING THROUGH TUE IN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC COMBINE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF
27N AND BETWEEN 37W AND 44W. MEANWHILE, A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FORCES FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OFF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA AS SHOWN IN A RECENT
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA. ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC, MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-8 FT ARE
OCCURRING SOUTH OF 24N AND WEST OF 45W, WITH HIGHEST SEAS TO 8 FT
E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC, FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND
SEAS OF 4-8 FT ARE PRESENT NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND EAST OF
25W. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTHWARD EARLY THIS WEEK AS A BROAD
SURFACE TROUGH FORMS E OF 50W. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND
REACH 65W BY WED, THEN MOVE W OF 70W AND WEAKEN QUICKLY THU.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL S OF 24N THROUGH TUE, WITH
GENTLE WINDS TO THE N. PULSING STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE EVENINGS THROUGH TUE N OF HISPANIOLA AND IN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS N OF 22N AND E OF 70W
TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES.
ERA
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