251
AXNT20 KNHC 200015
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC MON JUL 20 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS CENTERED NEAR 27.7N 85.0W AT 20/0000
UTC OR 155 NM SSE OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA, STATIONARY. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS LOWERED A LITTLE TO 1008 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE
NEAR 6 FT IN THE NE QUADRANT, WHERE FRESH WINDS ARE PRESENT. THE
DEPRESSION HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THE CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED TO BE RATHER WELL ORGANIZED,
AND DEEP CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER AND
IN BANDS. THIS CONVECTION CONSISTS OF THE NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
ISOLATED TYPE INTENSITY SEEN IN A WIDE BAND FROM 24N TO 25N
BETWEEN 85W AND 87W, AND FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF
24N EAST OF 91W. A VERY SLOW NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO,
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
DEPRESSION WILL MOVE NEAR OR ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MON. THE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 8 INCHES THROUGH
FRI ALONG THE GULF COAST AND ADJACENT INLAND LOCATIONS FROM
WESTERN FLORIDA TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST, INCLUDING SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF ALABAMA, MISSISSIPPI, AND LOUISIANA. THIS RAINFALL
MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.
SWELLS GENERATED BY THE DEPRESSION ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
GULF COAST OF FLORIDA AND ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD WESTWARD DURING
THE WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST TWO
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 36W,
SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 15 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE THE WAVE AXIS CROSSES THE MONSOON TROUGH.
OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR THIS WAVE
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A DENSE SAHARAN AIR LAYER.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 63W SOUTH
OF 18N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE WAVE FROM 13N TO 15N.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
AFRICA NEAR 19N17W, AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 12N24W TO
10N32W AND TO 08N41W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 07N50W
AND TO 09N58W. ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN
30 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 27W-30W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF
ABOUT 165 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PANAMA CITY, FLORIDA.
ELSEWHERE, A 1020 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED OVER THE WESTERN
GULF AT 25N92W. LATEST SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY DATA
INDICATE LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS WEST OF 90W. SEAS
ARE 2 TO 3 FT OVER THIS PART OF THE GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE
CYCLONIC WINDS ARE EAST OF 90W, EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO STRONG
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM NORTHEAST OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. SEAS ARE 2 TO 4 FT OVER THESE WATERS,
INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHER SEAS
OF 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE NE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO
27.9N 85.2W LATE TONIGHT, STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR
28.2N 85.5W MON AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
GUSTS 45 KT, MOVE TO NEAR 28.5N 86.0W LATE MON NIGHT, TO NEAR
28.9N 86.7W TUE AFTERNOON, TO NEAR 29.2N 87.5W LATE TUE NIGHT
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT AND TO NEAR 29.4N
88.8W WED AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60
KT. TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO IS FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE IN
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST THU AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE OUTSIDE FROM THE AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM, RATHER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GENERAL WIND FLOW PATTERN
ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND
RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE TO ITS SOUTH IS RESULTING IN STRONG
TO NEAR-GALE TRADES OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS NEAR NORTHWEST COLOMBIA. SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT ARE
OVER THESE WATERS, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 10 TO 13 FT OFFSHORE
COLOMBIA. LATEST SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES INDICATE
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MODERATE SEAS ARE WITH
THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ALONG WITH
SLIGHT TO MODERATE ARE NOTED, PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
SECTION OF THE SEA.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
PART OF THE SEA SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA DUE TO
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CUBA AND OVER THE WESTERN PART OF JAMAICA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 16N WEST OF 78W TO INLAND
SOME SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL WEAKEN SOME EARLY THIS WEEK ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE CARIBBEAN TO RELAX SOME ALLOWING FOR THE TRADES TO
DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN,
WITH STILL SOME STRONG WINDS PULSING IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR 31N39W TO 23N46W.
DOWNSTREAM FROM IT, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR 23N46W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVIDENT FROM 24N TO 29N BETWEEN 40W AND
47W. TO THE WEST, A 1021 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR 29N58W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA PRACTICALLY
NORTH OF 19N, EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE
TO ITS SOUTH IS SUSTAINING MOSTLY FRESH TRADES SOUTH OF 24N
BETWEEN 55W AND 75W, INCLUDING THE WATERS NEAR HISPANIOLA AND
OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A SWATH OF FRESH
NORTHEAST WINDS IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 26N TO 31N
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. SEAS ARE 5 TO 6 FT OVER THESE WATERS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN, MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
CONTINUE ALONG WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT SOUTH OF ABOUT 24N EAST OF
67W, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FT SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND 54W. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE AROUND 3 TO 4 FT
ALONG WITH MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL MOVE
WEST TO NEAR 70W FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES WILL PREVAIL SOUTH F 24N DURING THIS TIME, WITH GENTLE WINDS
TO THE NORTH. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE EACH EVENING NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
AGUIRRE
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