089
AXNT20 KNHC 200607
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC MON JUL 20 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0555 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS CENTERED NEAR 28.4N 85.3W AT 20/0300
UTC OR ABOUT 110 NM S OF PANAMA CITY, FLORIDA, STATIONARY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 8 FT
IN THE NE QUADRANT, WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE PRESENT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NORTH OF 25N
AND EAST OF 91W. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST- NORTHWEST OR WEST. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
DEPRESSION WILL MOVE NEAR OR ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.
SWELLS GENERATED BY THE DEPRESSION ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
GULF COAST OF FLORIDA AND ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD WESTWARD DURING THE
WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST TWO
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS ALONG
38W, SOUTH OF 19N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED NEAR THIS WAVE DUE TO DRY
SAHARAN AIR.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W, SOUTH OF 18N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15-20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
OVER THE NEARBY CARIBBEAN WATERS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 10N30W AND
THEN TO 08N42W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N42W TO 07N58W. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT WITHIN 120 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
ELSEWHERE, A 1015 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED OVER THE WESTERN
GULF AT 26N93W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N-NE WINDS AND SLIGHT
SEAS ARE PRESENT OFF WESTERN YUCATAN. MEANWHILE, MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY FRESH SE-S WINDS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT ARE PRESENT OFF
TAMAULIPAS AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS NEAR 28.0N 85.1W AT 11 PM
EDT, AND IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. TWO WILL MOVE TO 28.3N 85.3W MON MORNING,
STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 28.6N 85.7W MON EVENING, 28.8N
86.2W TUE MORNING, 29.1N 87.0W TUE EVENING, 29.3N 88.1W WED
MORNING, AND 29.2N 89.6W WED EVENING. TWO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NEAR 29.0N 93.5W LATE THU.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND
RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE TO ITS SOUTH IS RESULTING IN STRONG
TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS NEAR NORTHWEST COLOMBIA. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS. SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FT ARE NOTED IN
THESE WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE FOUND IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
A LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PRESENT IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN, SOUTH OF 12N. GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EVIDENT IN
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN
SOME EARLY THIS WEEK, ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
CARIBBEAN TO RELAX SOMEWHAT. THIS WILL DIMINISH TRADEWINDS TO
MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN, WITH STILL
STRONG WINDS PULSING IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND LIKELY
IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE
NORTH-CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC COMBINE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 20N AND BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TROUGHS AND HIGHER PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH SUSTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
NORTH OF 25N AND BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. MEANWHILE, A BROAD
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FORCES
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF 25N AND
BETWEEN 55W AND 75W, ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS.
IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC, FRESH TO LOCALLY NEAR GALE-FORCE
N-NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-9 FT ARE PRESENT NORTH OF 22N AND EAST
OF 26W. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE FOUND IN THE
WATER PASSAGES BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS. IN THE REST OF THE
BASIN, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE WEST
FROM ABOUT 50W TO 70W FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL S OF 24N DURING THIS TIME, WITH GENTLE
WINDS TO THE NORTH. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE EACH EVENING N
OF HISPANIOLA AND LIKELY IN THE APPROACHES OF THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE.
DELGADO
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