857
AXNT20 KNHC 201045
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC MON JUL 20 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS CENTERED NEAR 28.5N 85.4W AT 20/0900
UTC OR 100 NM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA, MOVING NW AT 3 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE 8 FT IN
THE NE QUADRANT, WHERE FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
PRESENT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
NORTH OF 24N AND EAST OF 92W. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
DEPRESSION WILL MOVE NEAR OR ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE
COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY
AREAS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS
MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. SWELLS GENERATED
BY THE DEPRESSION ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA AND ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD WESTWARD DURING THE WEEK. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST TWO
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFFSHORE W AFRICA WITH AXIS ALONG 18W, EXTENDING
FROM 03N TO 18N, AND MOVING AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 12W AND 24W.
A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS ALONG
40W, SOUTH OF 18N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED NEAR THIS WAVE DUE TO DRY
SAHARAN AIR.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 68W, SOUTH OF 18N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15-20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
OVER THE NEARBY CARIBBEAN WATERS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 10N35W AND
THEN TO 07N45W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N45W TO 07N58W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 24W AND 32W, AND
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON/ITCZ W OF 37W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS NEAR 28.5N 85.4W AT 5 AM EDT, AND IS
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB.
ELSEWHERE, A 1016 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED OVER THE WESTERN
GULF AT 25N92W.
FOR THE FORECAST, TWO WILL STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR
28.7N 85.8W THIS AFTERNOON, MOVE TO 29.0N 86.3W TUE MORNING, 29.3N
86.9W TUE AFTERNOON, 29.6N 87.8W WED MORNING, 29.8N 89.1W WED
AFTERNOON, AND INLAND TO 29.7N 90.9W THU MORNING. TWO WILL CHANGE
LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NEAR 29.6N 93.0W EARLY FRI.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND
RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE TO ITS SOUTH IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN,
INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN. SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT ARE NOTED IN THESE WATERS. MODERATE
TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT
SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN SOME THROUGH THU, ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
CARIBBEAN TO RELAX SOMEWHAT. THIS WILL DIMINISH TRADEWINDS TO
MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN, WITH STILL STRONG
WINDS PULSING IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND LIKELY IN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE
NORTH-CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC COMBINE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 20N AND BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TROUGHS AND HIGHER PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH SUSTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
NORTH OF 25N AND BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. MEANWHILE, A BROAD
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FORCES
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF 25N AND
BETWEEN 55W AND 75W, ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS.
IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC, FRESH TO LOCALLY NEAR GALE-FORCE
N-NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-9 FT ARE PRESENT NORTH OF 22N AND EAST
OF 26W. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE FOUND IN THE
WATER PASSAGES BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS. IN THE REST OF THE
BASIN, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE WEST
FROM ABOUT 52W TO 70W FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK, CARRYING
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS E OF THE
BAHAMAS TONIGHT TROUGH THU MORNING. FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL S OF
24N THROUGH THE PERDIOD, EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY STRONG WINDS PULSING
EACH EVENING N OF HISPANIOLA AND LIKELY IN THE APPROACHES OF THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE
AND FROM LATE THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
RAMOS
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