115
AXNT20 KNHC 201708
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC MON JUL 20 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1600 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS CENTERED NEAR 28.5N 85.6W AT 20/1500
UTC OR 100 NM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA, MOVING NW AT 3 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE 9 FT IN THE
NE QUADRANT, WHERE STRONG WINDS ARE PRESENT. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 24N AND E OF 92W. ON THE FORECAST TRACK,
THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SE LOUISIANA IN TWO TO THREE DAYS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF STORM
SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS MOVING INLAND FROM
THE SHORELINE. SWELLS GENERATED BY THE DEPRESSION ARE AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA AND ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
WESTWARD DURING THE WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST TWO
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS ALONG 21W, FROM 04N TO 18N, MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 13N E OF 24W.
A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W, SOUTH
OF 19N, MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT. ABUNDANT DRY SAHARAN AIR
ENCOMPASSES THIS WAVE, PRECLUDING ANY CONVECTION.
A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM HAITI ALONG 72W,
MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N37W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N45W TO 07N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IN THE NE GULF.
AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO, 1016 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 25N92W DOMINATES, LEADING TO GENTLE WINDS
AND SLIGHT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WILL STRENGTHEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM NEAR 28.6N 86.0W THIS EVENING, MOVE TO 28.9N 86.5W
TUE MORNING, 29.2N 87.2W TUE EVENING, 29.4N 88.2W WED MORNING,
29.5N 89.5W WED EVENING, AND INLAND TO 29.5N 90.8W THU MORNING.
TWO WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR 29.4N 93.3W EARLY
FRI.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND
RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS RESULTING IN
FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, WITH LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. SEAS OF 7 TO
9 FT ARE NOTED IN THESE WATERS. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE FOUND
IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN THE NW BASIN, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE PREVALENT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED S OF 12N IN THE SW BASIN, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 10N78W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN
LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. DURING THE SAME
PERIOD, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE, MAINLY AT NIGHT. PULSING WINDS TO FRESH SPEEDS
ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
AN BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS TWO SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTIONS, ALONG
45W N OF 25N, AND FROM 18N55W TO 22N51W, RESPECTIVELY. THESE
FEATURES ARE INDUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N TO
29N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. NW OF THESE TROUGH AXES, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS ARE BEING GENERATED IN THE TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FEATURES AND THE 1021 MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR 30N60W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES DOMINATE
WATERS BETWEEN 15N AND 30N, E OF 45W, OTHERWISE WINDS IN THE BASIN
ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER. MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 52W WILL MOVE WESTWARD REACHING NEAR 60W BY
TUE MORNING, AND NEAR 65W BY WED MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE HISPANIOLA, INCLUDING
APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS E OF THE BAHAMAS ARE
FORECAST ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI.
KONARIK
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