036
AXNT20 KNHC 202304
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC MON JUL 20 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2230 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS CENTERED NEAR 28.7N 85.8W AT 20/2100
UTC OR 90 NM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA, MOVING NW AT 3 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE 9 FT IN
THE NE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED NORTH OF 25N AND EAST OF 90W. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE NEAR OR ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. SWELLS
GENERATED BY THE DEPRESSION ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE GULF
COAST OF FLORIDA AND ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD WESTWARD DURING THE
WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST TWO
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS ALONG 24W, FROM 06N TO 19N, MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY OCCURRING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE.
A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W,
SOUTH OF 23N, MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT. ABUNDANT DRY SAHARAN AIR
ENCOMPASSES THIS WAVE, PRECLUDING ANY CONVECTION.
A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM JAMAICA ALONG
76W, MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
SOUTH OF 14W WEST OF 75W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 10N35W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N44W TO 06N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE
ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED SOUTH OF 14W
WEST OF 75W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM THE
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IN THE NE GULF.
AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO, 1016 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 25N92W DOMINATES, LEADING TO GENTLE WINDS
AND SLIGHT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS NEAR 28.7N 85.8W AT 5 PM EDT,
AND IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005
MB. TWO WILL STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 29.0N 86.2W TUE
MORNING, MOVE TO 29.3N 86.7W TUE AFTERNOON, 29.6N 87.5W WED
MORNING, 29.6N 88.5W WED AFTERNOON, INLAND TO 29.6N 89.8W THU
MORNING, AND MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR
29.5N 91.1W THU AFTERNOON. TWO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS
IT MOVES TO NEAR 29.5N 93.9W FRI AFTERNOON.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND
RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS RESULTING IN
FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, WITH LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. SEAS OF 7 TO
9 FT ARE NOTED IN THESE WATERS. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE FOUND
IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN THE NW BASIN, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE PREVALENT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED SOUTH OF 14W WEST OF 75W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN
LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. DURING THE
SAME PERIOD, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, MAINLY AT NIGHT. PULSING WINDS REACHING
FRESH SPEEDS ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH WED
NIGHT. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
AN BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS TWO SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTIONS,
FROM 26N49W TO 30N47W AND FROM 18N57W TO 25N53W, RESPECTIVELY.
THESE FEATURES ARE INDUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
19N-29N BETWEEN 47W-61W. NW OF THESE TROUGH AXES, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS ARE BEING GENERATED IN THE TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FEATURES AND THE 1021 MB
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 30N61W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADES DOMINATE WATERS BETWEEN 15N AND 30N, E OF 45W,
OTHERWISE WINDS IN THE BASIN ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER. MODERATE
SEAS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 55W WILL MOVE WESTWARD REACHING NEAR 60W BY
TUE MORNING, NEAR 67W BY WED MORNING, AND NEAR 75W BY THU
MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE HISPANIOLA, INCLUDING APPROACHES TO
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS E OF THE BAHAMAS ARE FORECAST
ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI.
LANDSEA/KONARIK
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