772
AXNT20 KNHC 210608
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0550 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS NEAR 28.2N 85.9W, OR
ABOUT 120 NM S OF PANAMA CITY, FLORIDA AT 11 PM EDT, AND IS
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT,
AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. PEAK SEAS ARE 10 FT
IN THE E SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE OF BERTHA, COVERING
APPROXIMATELY FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 84W AND 91W. A SLOW WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, BERTHA WILL MOVE NEAR OR ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SWELLS
GENERATED BY BERTHA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA AND ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD WESTWARD DURING THE WEEK. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST TWO
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS ALONG
25W, FROM 07N TO 19N, MOVING W AT AROUND 5-10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
WAVE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 10N TO
22N WITH AXIS NEAR 43W, MOVING W AT AROUND 5-10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT FROM 18N
TO 22N BETWEEN 42W AND 45W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 81W SOUTH OF
19N, MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 17N BETWEEN 77W AND 83W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 09N25W TO 10N35W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N35W TO 07N50W TO 06N57W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N TO 19N E OF 18W, AND FROM 05N TO
12N BETWEEN 27W AND 35W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IN THE NE GULF.
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS NEAR 28.2N 85.9W AT 11 PM EDT, AND IS
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45
KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. AWAY FROM THE
INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1013 MB
IS CENTERED NEAR 24N92W, COVERING MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
GULF AND SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS W OF 90W AND OVER THE
SE GULF WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, BERTHA WILL MOVE TO 28.8N 86.6W TUE MORNING,
29.1N 87.3W TUE EVENING, 29.3N 88.1W WED MORNING, INLAND TO 29.3N
89.4W WED EVENING, INLAND TO 29.3N 90.7W THU MORNING, AND WEAKEN
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR 29.3N 92.1W THU EVENING. BERTHA WILL
CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NEAR 29.3N 94.6W LATE
FRI. SWELLS GENERATED BY BERTHA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
GULF COAST OF FLORIDA AND ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD WESTWARD DURING THE
REST OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF
WILL BECOME LESS EVIDENT BY MIDWEEK. AFTER MIDWEEK, ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH AND
RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA IS RESULTING IN MAINLY
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL,
SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLIES ARE ALSO ONGOING IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. OFFSHORE COLOMBIA WINDS ARE LOCALLY STRONG AND SEAS
ROUGH TO 9 FT. EXCEPT THIS REGION, THE CENTRAL AND SW BASIN HAVE
MODERATE SEAS WHILE SLIGHT SEAS DOMINATE BOTH THE E AND NW
CARIBBEAN REGIONS. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE, SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS ARE ONGOING OVER THE
OFFSHORES BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA, ASSOCIATED WITH THE E
EXTENSION OF THE E PACIFIC MONSOON.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN
LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. DURING THE SAME
PERIOD, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE, MAINLY AT NIGHT. PULSING WINDS REACHING FRESH
SPEEDS ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH WED NIGHT.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 27N56W
TO 19N58W, WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN 50W AND
65W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION, RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS W OF THE TROUGH AXIS, BETWEEN 56W AND
64W. THE SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO SHOW FRESH E WINDS OVER THE
ADJACENT WATERS OF HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH, WHICH IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS OVER THE E WATERS E OF 35W
WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OFFSHORE
CENTRAL AND NE FLORIDA DUE TO THE GRADIENT OF PRESSURE BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND TROPICAL STORM BERTHA, LOCATED IN THE NE GULF OF
AMERICA. SEAS ARE MODERATE BETWEEN 20W AND 67W AND MAINLY SLIGHT W
OF 67W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
WESTWARD REACHING NEAR 70W BY WED AFTERNOON AND TO NEAR 75W BY THU
MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE HISPANIOLA, INCLUDING APPROACHES TO
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE E OF
THE BAHAMAS THROUGH FRI, EXCEPT S OF 23N E OF ABOUT 77W WHERE
MOSTLY FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RAMOS
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