237
AXNT20 KNHC 220602
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC WED JUL 22 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0550 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 29.4N 87.7W AT 22/0300
UTC OR 110 NM WSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA, MOVING W AT 5 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 15 FT
ON THE E SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER. BERTHA REMAINS A SHEARED
TROPICAL STORM. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED, WITH BURSTS OF
DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SW SEMICIRCLE BY STRONG SHEAR.
THE CONVECTION CONSISTS OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERING THE WATERS FROM 24N TO 29N BETWEEN 86W AND
93W. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 KT, AND A GENERALLY
WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, BERTHA WILL MOVE NEAR OR ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY BERTHA
WILL CONTINUE SPREADING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST TWO
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS ALONG
33W FROM 09N TO 19W, MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT. DRY AIR IN THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 11N
TO 15N BETWEEN 25W AND 31W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W FROM 08N TO 22N, MOVING W AT 10 TO
15 KT. CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 240 NM
WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF SENEGAL
NEAR 14N17W, AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 10N28W AND TO 08N38W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N38W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA NEAR 07N58W.
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES,
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN THE COAST
OF W AFRICA AND 19W. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOTED FROM 03N
TO 09N BETWEEN 29W AND 43W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA LOCATED IN THE NE GULF.
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS NEAR 29.4N 87.7W AT 11 PM EDT, AND IS
MOVING WEST AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 60 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB. SOUTH OF THE
SHEARED CONVECTION FROM BERTHA, A WEAK RIDGE S OF 25N AND ANCHORED
BY A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 23N91W DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
GULF WATERS. THE GRADIENT OF PRESSURE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A
SURFACE TROUGH INLAND YUCATAN, SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E
WINDS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. OVER THE NW GULF, MODERATE TO STRONG
SW TO W WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BERTHA ARE PRESENT, BEING THE
STRONGEST WINDS NEAR 90W OR SOUTH OF LOUISIANA. IN THE FLORIDA
STRAITS, WINDS ARE MODERATE FROM THE SE. OTHERWISE, S OF 26N AND W
OF 92W, SEAS ARE SLIGHT.
FOR THE FORECAST, BERTHA WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES TO NEAR 29.4N 88.6W WED MORNING, THEN INLAND TO NEAR 29.4N
90.2W WED EVENING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT.
BERTHA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR 29.3N
95.0W THU EVENING, MOVE INLAND TO NEAR 29.5N 97.0W FRI MORNING,
AND DISSIPATE FRI EVENING. SWELLS GENERATED BY BERTHA WILL
CONTINUE SPREADING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN THE WAKE OF BERTHA, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF WILL BE REPLACED BY RIDGING
ASSOCIATED TO A NEW HIGH CENTER THAT FORMS OVER THE NE GULF
PROVIDING FOR A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OFF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NEAR NE MEXICO AND THE TEXAS COAST. THIS
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND NEAR CABO BEATA, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS ARE ALSO ONGOING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SEAS OVER
THESE WATERS ARE MODERATE, EXCEPT ROUGH OFFSHORE COLOMBIA. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER, WITH
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN
LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DURING THE SAME PERIOD, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH WED NIGHT. FRESH WINDS
WILL PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH WED NIGHT AS WELL.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 28N61W TO 24N64W AND TO PUERTO
RICO. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH, AFFECTING MAINLY THE WATERS FROM 20N TO 29N
BETWEEN 55W AND 70W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION, THE TROUGH IS
BRINGING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS TO THE SAME REGION E OF THE
BAHAMAS. THE BERMUDA-AZORES RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC FORECAST REGION SUPPORTING MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG N TO NE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CANARY ISLANDS, AND
IN THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SEAS ARE GENERALLY
MODERATE ACROSS THE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MOVE WESTWARD REACHING NEAR 70W BY WED AFTERNOON AND TO NEAR 75W
BY THU MORNING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE HISPANIOLA, INCLUDING APPROACHES TO
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE E OF
THE BAHAMAS THROUGH FRI, EXCEPT S OF 23N E OF ABOUT 77W WHERE
MOSTLY FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED INTO SUN.
RAMOS
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