660
AXNT20 KNHC 221735
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC WED JUL 22 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 29.8N 88.6W AT 22/1500
UTC OR 30 NM S OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI, MOVING WNW AT 5 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE 18 FT.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF BERTHA FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 89W-94W. A
WESTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF BERTHA WILL MOVE NEAR OR ALONG THE LOUISIANA
AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS THROUGH THURSDAY, AND THEN MOVE FARTHER
INLAND INTO TEXAS ON FRIDAY. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT BERTHA COULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY BERTHA WILL
CONTINUE SPREADING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
BERTHA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 37W FROM
07N-22N, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 50W FROM
05N-18N MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10-15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC FROM COASTAL SENEGAL AT
13N17W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 10N22W WHERE IT BREAKS FOR A
TROPICAL WAVE AND TROUGH. THE ITCZ STARTS AT 08N39W AND EXTENDS TO
08N48W, WHERE IT BREAKS FOR ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE. THE ITCZ
RESUMES AT 08N51W TO 07N58W ALONG COASTAL GUYANA. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 09N-14N EAST
OF 21W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 06N-11N
WEST OF 48W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA LOCATED ABOUT 50 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS RELATED TO BERTHA, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND SEAS OF 2-7 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS ABOUT 50 NM SOUTH OF
PASCAGOULA, MISSISSIPPI NEAR 29.8N 88.6W AT 11 AM EDT, AND IS
MOVING WEST- NORTHWEST AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB.
BERTHA WILL MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND REACH 29.6N
90.3W THIS EVENING, THEN CONTINUE TO 29.5N 92.7W OFF SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA BY THU MORNING. BERTHA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND
MAKE LANDFALL AGAIN OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATE THU, WEAKEN
TO A REMNANT LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS FRI MORNING, THEN
DISSIPATE BY FRI EVENING. SWELLS GENERATED BY BERTHA WILL
CONTINUE SPREADING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN THE WAKE OF BERTHA, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF WILL BE REPLACED BY RIDGING
ASSOCIATED TO A NEW HIGH CENTER THAT FORMS OVER THE NE GULF
PROVIDING FOR A LIGHT TO GENTLE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN,
EXCEPT FOR PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OFF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND NEAR NE MEXICO AND THE TEXAS COAST. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE USUAL NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS
REDUCED TODAY DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. AS
A RESULT, THERE IS ONLY A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
TRADES JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. SEAS ARE 5-9 FT IN
THAT AREA AS WELL AS DOWN FETCH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE,
TRADES ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS 2-5 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN
LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL
PULSE TONIGHT. FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS
FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WITH
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. LOOKING AHEAD,
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS SAT
AND SUN
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
SURFACE RIDGING IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ASSOCIATED
WITH AN USUALLY FAR NORTH LOCATED BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH. THE
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURE
WITH THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING ONLY MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADES AND SEAS 4-7 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS NORTH OF
THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH. THE EXCEPTION ARE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
NE WINDS OFF OF WESTERN SAHARA WITH SEAS 6-9 FT. THERE ARE THREE
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE SURFACE TROUGHS. THE FIRST IS NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM
20N-30N BETWEEN 63W-72W. THE SECOND IS A TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE
AZORES ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NORTH OF
28N BETWEEN 33W-38W. THE THIRD IS A TROUGH THAT MAY HAVE BEEN
SPAWNED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 37W AND IS CAUSING SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N-16N BETWEEN
26W-34W. ADDITIONALLY, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PROMOTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N-29N BETWEEN 52W-60W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL MOVE WESTWARD REACHING THE BAHAMAS THU
AFTERNOON AND TO CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA FRI. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE HISPANIOLA, INCLUDING
APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST
ELSEWHERE. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS
EAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT PRECEDED BY
MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHWEST TO WINDS BETWEEN NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND BERMUDA.
LANDSEA
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