490
AXNT20 KNHC 222319
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC THU JUL 23 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
BERTHA'S CENTER MADE LANDFALL ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF ST. BERNARD
PARISH, LOUISIANA, AROUND 2 PM CDT. AT 22/2100, TROPICAL STORM
BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 29.8N 89.8W OR 20 NM SE OF NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA, MOVING W AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO
50 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE 18 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING SW OF THE CENTER OF BERTHA, PARTICULARLY
N OF 25N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER
OF BERTHA WILL MOVE NEAR OR ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS
COASTS THROUGH THURSDAY, AND THEN MOVE FARTHER INLAND INTO TEXAS
THURSDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO, AND BERTHA IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL
STORM INTENSITY UP UNTIL IT REACHES THE UPPER TEXAS COAST ON
THURSDAY. BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE INLAND OVER TEXAS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS OF
6 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN GULF COAST
FROM NORTHWEST FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS RAINFALL MAY
PRODUCE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. SWELLS
GENERATED BY BERTHA WILL CONTINUE SPREADING WESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
BERTHA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA.
ITS AXIS IS NEAR 17W BASED ON WAVE DIAGNOSTICS. A CLUSTER OF
MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FOLLOWS THE WAVE AND IS
AFFECTING MAINLY NORTHERN SENEGAL AND THE SW PART OF MAURITANIA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W SOUTH OF 20N, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND
20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT
THIS TIME.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 51W SOUTH OF 16N, MOVING
WESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTION IS LIMITED NEAR THE WAVE
AXIS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC FROM COASTAL SENEGAL AT
13N17W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 12N26W. THE ITCZ STARTS AT
08N42W AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO NORTHERN GUYANA INTO EASTERN
VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO
12.5N BETWEEN 20W AND 23W, FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 32W AND 36W
AND IN THE VICINITY OF 07N50W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA LOCATED 20 NM SE OF NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA.
LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE CIRCULATION OF BERTHA COVER THE WATERS N OF
26N BETWEEN 88W AND 94W. SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT GENERATING BY BERTHA
ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE NE GULF BASED ON A PAIR OF ALTIMETER
PASSES. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WILL MOVE TO 29.6N 91.3W
THU MORNING, 29.5N 93.9W THU AFTERNOON, WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW
NEAR 29.4N 96.9W FRI MORNING, AND DISSIPATE FRI AFTERNOON. SWELLS
GENERATED BY BERTHA WILL CONTINUE SPREADING WESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH THU. IN THE WAKE OF BERTHA, WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF WILL BE REPLACED
BY RIDGING ASSOCIATED TO A NEW HIGH CENTER THAT FORMS OVER THE NE
GULF PROVIDING FOR A LIGHT TO GENTLE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN,
EXCEPT FOR PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OFF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND NEAR NE MEXICO AND THE TEXAS COAST. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE USUAL NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS
REDUCED TODAY DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. AS A RESULT, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE NOTED
IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE GULF OF VENEZUELA,
AS WELL AS OVER THE SW PART OF THE BASIN. SEAS ARE 8 TO 12 FT
WITH THESE WINDS BASED ON ALTIMETER DATA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE IN THE LEE OF CUBA, WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4
FT. ELSEWHERE, TRADES ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 5
FT. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE SE BAHAMAS IS HELPING
TO INDUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE BAHAMAS, THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS, HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN
LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE WILL PULSE TONIGHT. FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE
GULF OF HONDURAS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE GULF
OF HONDURAS SAT AND SUN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND RUNS
FROM 29N66W TO 21N70W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS, WITH MODERATE SEAS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
SUPPORTS THIS TROUGH, AND IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS A
LARGE AREA, MAINLY FROM 22N TO 29N BETWEEN 52W AND 74W. WINDS
AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FORECAST REGION. ITS
ASSOCIATED RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURES OVER NW AFRICA IS
PROMOTING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN THE CANARY
ISLANDS AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 26N. IN ADDITION, THE MODERATE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE WITH THE
ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING ONLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADES AND SEAS 4 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD REACHING THE BAHAMAS THU AFTERNOON AND TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA FRI. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH. FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE
HISPANIOLA, INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH
SAT NIGHT. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS ARE
FORECAST ELSEWHERE. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE WATERS EAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT
PRECEDED BY MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHWEST TO WINDS NORTH OF
29N AND EAST OF 75W.
GR
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