319
AXNT20 KNHC 231028
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC THU JUL 23 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 29.0N 92.2W AT 23/0900 UTC
OR 80 NM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA, MOVING W AT 11 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 12
FT. BERTHA REMAINS A SHEARED SYSTEM. ITS CENTER RE-FORMED OFFSHORE
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
LARGE AREA OF NUMEROUS TO STRONG CONVECTION IS EVIDENT OVER THE NW
GULF FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 92W AND THE TEXAS COAST, AND
EXTENDING JUST INLAND THE COAST. BERTHA IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A
GENERAL WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH TONIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ON FRI. ON THIS
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF BERTHA WILL MOVE NEAR OR ALONG THE
LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, AND THEN
MOVE FARTHER INLAND INTO TEXAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. BERTHA IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY UP UNTIL IT REACHES
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY, AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
INLAND OVER TEXAS BY TONIGHT OR FRI. BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS TO 6
INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG TEXAS GULF COAST AND SOUTH TEXAS.
THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN
URBAN AREAS. SWELLS GENERATED BY BERTHA WILL CONTINUE SPREADING
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
BERTHA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 20W MOVING WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE WAVE.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 45W FROM 0N TO
22N MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE NEAR THE ITCZ.
ANOTHER CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES EXTENDING ALONG 55W FROM 08N TO 23N. IT IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS
WAVE, ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR ITS SOUTHERN PORTION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC FROM COASTAL SENEGAL AT
13N17W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 10N21W AND WESTWARD TO 10N30W,
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 08N47W AND TO INLAND SOUTH
AMERICA AT 07N61W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE
TROPICAL WAVES, SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 36W-40W, AND WITHIN
60 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 36W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 44W-48W,
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 23W-26W AND WITHIN 30 NM NORTH
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 48W-52W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29.0N
92.2W, OR ABOUT 95 NM SOUTHWEST OF NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA AT 5 AM
EDT. IT IS MOVING WEST AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS
ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE NE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, BERTHA WILL MOVE TO NEAR 29.3N 94.1W THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN MOVE INLAND TEXAS AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NEAR 29.0N 97.0W LATE TONIGHT, WEAKEN FURTHER TO A
REMNANT LOW NEAR 28.5N 100.1W FRI AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE SAT
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF BERTHA, A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH FRI, THEN SHIFT TO THE
CENTRAL GULF. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR A LIGHT TO GENTLE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NEAR NE MEXICO AND THE TEXAS
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE USUAL NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN,
ALTHOUGH REDUCED DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS AND EXTENDS INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT
WITH THESE WINDS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE IN
THE LEE OF CUBA, WINDWARD PASSAGE AND OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS. ELSEWHERE, TRADES ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER
WITH SLIGHT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ATLANTIC COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FRESH NE WINDS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL DIMINISH TODAY. FRESH
WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING, THEN
PULSE AT FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS AT NIGHT BEGINNING ON SAT.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 29N70W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS
TO THE EAST EXTENDS FROM 29N59W TO 23N62W. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES
ARE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 21N TO 30N BETWEEN 55W AND 75W. ASIDE FROM DESCRIBED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGHS AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IS SUSTAINING FRESH
TRADES OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF ABOUT 23N AND EAST OF 75W.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OF 1022 MB IS NEAR 32N36W, WITH A TROUGH TO
29N42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG AND
WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FORECAST
REGION. ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURES OVER NW
AFRICA IS PROMOTING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN THE
CANARY ISLANDS AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 29N. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS
ARE MODERATE TO ROUGH. IN ADDITION, THE MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED TO THE ITCZ AND
MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING ONLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES
AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS NORTH OF
THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUES EASTWARD TO CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA FRI.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH.
FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE HISPANIOLA, INCLUDING
APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE.
LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS EAST OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT, PRECEDED BY FRESH TO
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS NORTH OF ABOUT 28N AND EAST OF 75W.
AGUIRRE
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