383
AXNT20 KNHC 231706
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC THU JUL 23 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 29.6N 93.2W AT 23/1500
UTC OR 30 NM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA, MOVING W AT 9 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF 25N AND W OF 93W. BERTHA IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS TO 6 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG TEXAS
GULF COAST AND SOUTH TEXAS. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. SREAS OF 8 TO 14 KT
ARE EXPECTED N OF 27N BETWEN 88W AND 93W. SWELLS GENERATED BY
BERTHA WILL CONTINUE SPREADING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF BERTHA WILL MOVE NEAR OR
ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS, AND THEN MOVE INLAND OVER TEXAS THIS EVENING.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
BERTHA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 21W, MOVING WESTWARD
AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS S OF 10N.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 45W FROM 0N TO
22N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
NOTED AT THIS TIME.
ANOTHER CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES EXTENDING ALONG 57W FROM 08N TO 23N, MOVING WESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 18N16W TO 11N34W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 11N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ AND W OF 35W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON T.S. BERTHA.
ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF BERTHA, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE NE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, BERTHA WILL MOVE INLAND TO 29.7N 95.2W THIS
EVENING, WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW AND DISSIPATE FRI EVENING. IN THE
WAKE OF BERTHA, A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH FRI, THEN SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL GULF. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR A LIGHT TO GENTLE WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OFF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NEAR NE MEXICO AND THE TEXAS COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE USUAL NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN,
ALTHOUGH REDUCED DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS AND EXTENDS INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT WITH THESE WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY
WINDS ARE IN THE LEE OF CUBA, WINDWARD PASSAGE AND OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS. ELSEWHERE, TRADES ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SLIGHT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS
MAINLY AT NIGHT BEGINNING ON SAT. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WITH
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL WAVES IN
THE BASIN.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 29N72W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS TO
THE EAST EXTENDS FROM 28N61W TO 24N62W. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES
ARE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY W OF
57W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGHS AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH IS SUSTAINING FRESH TRADES OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF
ABOUT 23N AND EAST OF 75W. TO THE E, A LOW PRESSURE OF 1022 MB IS
NEAR 32N36W, WITH A TROUGH TO 29N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FORECAST
REGION. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN THE CANARY
ISLANDS AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 29N. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE
PEAKING TO 8 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS NORTH OF THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE WESTWARD TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD TO CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA FRI. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH. FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OFFSHORE HISPANIOLA, INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ALONG WITH
MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE WATERS EAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT,
PRECEDED BY FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS NORTH OF ABOUT 28N AND
EAST OF 75W.
ERA
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