398
AXNT20 KNHC 240938
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC FRI JUL 24 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 27W,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
CONFINED TO THE MONSOON FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 19W AND 26W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 09N TO
19N WITH AXIS NEAR 49W, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 40W AND 52W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 62W, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE WAVE FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SENEGAL NEAR DAKAR 15N17W AND CONTINUES SW TO 09N24W TO 08N31W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N31W TO 09N45W TO 07N58W. ASIDE FROM THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES, SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
THE REMNANTS OF BERTHA HAVE DEVOLVED INTO A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
TEXAS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W AWAY FROM THE REGION, HAVING NO
FURTHER IMPACT ON THE BASIN. A 1018 MB HIGH OVER THE NE GULF IS
SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS IN THAT REGION AND
GENTLE TO MODERATE E WINDS OVER THE SE GULF. MODERATE MAINLY SE
WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN BASIN. SEAS ARE 2 TO 4 FT IN THE
EASTERN GULF AND 3 TO 5 FT IN THE WEST. SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM
A LAND-BREEZE IS IMPACTING WATERS WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM OF THE THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA, OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL GULF
TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR A LIGHT TO GENTLE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS WITH SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. AN UPPER LEVEL-
LOW LOCATED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NW BASIN AND WINDWARD PASSAGE. IN
THE SW CARIBBEAN, THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 15N.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS SAT NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY SUN NIGHT. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WITH SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS INDUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF
24N BETWEEN 58W AND 78W. OTHERWISE, MAINLY MODERATE TRADES
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE BASIN DUE TO THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. STRONG NE WINDS
AND SEAS TO 10 FT ARE IMPACTING WATERS NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS
WHERE THIS GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR
29N77W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH. FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE
HISPANIOLA, INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS ARE
FORECAST ELSEWHERE. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE
WATERS EAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND, PRECEDED BY
FRESH SOUTHWEST WINDS NORTH OF ABOUT 28N AND EAST OF 75W.
KONARIK
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