296
AXNT20 KNHC 242315
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SAT JUL 25 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 32W FROM
05N-20N, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AND S OF 10N.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 54W FROM
07N-18N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AND N OF 10N.
A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 67W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE.
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN AT 84W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING S OF 19N BETWEEN 75W AND
85W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 16N17W SOUTHWEST TO
08N31W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N33W TO 06N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-110N BETWEEN 25W-40W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE N GULF NEAR 30N87W.
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE. SEAS ARE 2-4 FT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL
SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL GULF SAT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODEST SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT FOR PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA AND HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS FORCING FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS 6-9 FT.
ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH SEAS 3-5 FT. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 10N-17N
WEST OF 76W ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. ADDITIONALLY, AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CAUSING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NORTH OF
19N WEST OF 85W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND
THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS SAT NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY SUN NIGHT. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WITH SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. MEANWHILE, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
THROUGH SUN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE ITCZ AND THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FORCING ONLY
MODERATE TO ISOLATED FRESH TRADES WEST OF 30W WITH SEAS OF 4-6
FT. A LARGER PRESSURE GRADIENT FARTHER EAST IS FORCING FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS WITH SEAS 7-9 FT NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 30W.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CAUSING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NORTH
OF 24N BETWEEN 61W-78W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TOWARD FLORIDA, SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZES AND SLIGHT SEAS THROUGH SAT. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD SUN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS
BETWEEN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND BERMUDA THEN STALL MON AND
DISSIPATE THROUGH MID WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 28N
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ERA
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