064
AXNT20 KNHC 250559
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SAT JUL 25 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0550 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. ITS AXIS IS NEAR
34W, EXTENDS FROM 06N TO 21N AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 TO
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 03N TO 12N
BETWEEN 26W AND 43W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ITS AXIS IS NEAR 57W,
EXTENDS FROM 06N TO 19N AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN
46W AND 58W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ITS AXIS IS NEAR
69W, EXTENDS FROM 18N SOUTHWARD AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10
TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE FAR W CARIBBEAN. ITS AXIS IS NEAR 86W,
EXTENDS FROM 20N SOUTHWARD AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE W CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
79W AND 86W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 17N16W AND CONTINUES
SW TO 07N36W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N36W TO 06N53W. ASIDE FROM
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES, SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 13W AND 20W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE N GULF NEAR 29N88W.
A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WESTERN FLORIDA IS GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 85W. IN THE SW
GULF, SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 92W,
WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OFFSHORE THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. MODERATE OR WEAKER E TO SE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE W OF
88W. EAST OF 88W, WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE. SLIGHT SEAS ARE
BASIN-WIDE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF WILL
BRING GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS TO THE BASIN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE OFFSHORE THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA EACH EVENING THIS WEEKEND.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA
AND HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS FORCING FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS 6-9 FT. IN THE E
BASIN, E WINDS ARE MODERATE TO FRESH AND SEAS MODERATE WHILE IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER AND SEAS ARE SLIGHT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS SAT NIGHT. MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. MEANWHILE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO SUN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
THE AZORES HIGH WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH LOWER PRESSURE
OVER THE ITCZ AND THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FORCING ONLY MODERATE TO
ISOLATED FRESH TRADES WEST OF 30W WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT. A LARGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT FARTHER EAST IS FORCING FRESH TO STRONG NE
WINDS WITH SEAS 7-10 FT NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 30W, INCLUDING THE
CANARY ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND, ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND FLORIDA MON, BEFORE STALLING
AND DISSIPATING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FRESH SW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP E OF THIS FRONT, MAINLY N OF 28N.
RAMOS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page