421
AXNT20 KNHC 251004
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SAT JUL 25 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS ALONG 38W, FROM 08N
TO 21N, MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 28W AND 43W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND HAS AN
AXIS ALONG 63W. IT IS MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING BETWEEN 11N AND 18N BETWEEN 52W AND 64W.
A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W FROM HAITI TO THE
COLOMBIA-VENEZUELA BORDER, MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AVE AT THIS TIME.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING OUT OF THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO
CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 88W, SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS,
MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE IS IMPACTING WATERS W OF 82W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 16N16W AND CONTINUES
SW TO 08N35W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N36W TO 06N53W. ASIDE FROM
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES, SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 11N E OF 20W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE N GULF NEAR 29N88W.
A SURFACE TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE NE GULF N OF 26N E
OF 85W. IN THE SW GULF, A SURFACE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS
GENERATING FRESH WINDS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE,
WITH SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS TO THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRESH
WINDS WILL PULSE OFFSHORE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS FORCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT. IN THE E BASIN,
E WINDS ARE MODERATE TO FRESH AND SEAS MODERATE WHILE IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER AND SEAS ARE SLIGHT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH MODERATE TO
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS
THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WITH SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. MEANWHILE, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE
ALONG THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH IS CAUSING MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADES ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS. E OF 30W, THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AND FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS ARE
IMPACTING WATERS N OF 20N, INCLUDING NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND, ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND FLORIDA MON NIGHT, BEFORE
STALLING AND DISSIPATING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FRESH SW
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, MAINLY N OF 28N.
KONARIK
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