519
AXNT20 KNHC 251702
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SAT JUL 25 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
AGADIR GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1032 MB
AZORES HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER NORTHERN AFRICA CURRENTLY
SUPPORT STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NE WINDS BETWEEN THE CANARY
ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF MOROCCO. THESE WINDS ARE CONFIRMED BY
SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 1100 UTC TODAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND REACH GALE-FORCE LATER TODAY. ACCORDINGLY, METEO
FRANCE HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE AGADIR ZONE UNTIL 26/00
UTC.
FOR MORE DETAILS, PLEASE REFER TO METEO-FRANCE'S WEBSITE AT:
WWMIWS.WMO.INT/INDEX.PHP/METAREAS/DISPLAY/2.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS ALONG 39W, FROM 08N
TO 20N, MOVING W AT AROUND 10-15 KT. CONVECTION NEAR THIS WAVE IS
DISCUSSED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND HAS
AN AXIS ALONG 66W. IT IS MOVING W AT AROUND 20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR THIS WAVE AXIS.
A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W FROM HAITI TO THE
COLOMBIA-VENEZUELA BORDER, MOVING W AT AROUND 10-15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR THE GULF OF VENEZUELA AND
LAKE MARACAIBO.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING OUT OF THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO
CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 88W, SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS,
MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE IS IMPACTING WATERS W OF 80W AND S OF 20N, LIKELY
ENHANCED BY THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS
THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 16N17W AND CONTINUES
SW TO 09N33W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N33W TO 07N58W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN THE W
COAST OF AFRICA AND 45W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 27N88W.
A SURFACE TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NE
GULF N OF 25N AND E OF 88W. IN THE SW GULF, A SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS GENERATING MODERATE SE WINDS. ELSEWHERE,
WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE, WITH SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF WILL BRING
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS TO THE BASIN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE OFFSHORE THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TONIGHT INTO SUN.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON ANY
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA AND
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS FORCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
OVER THE CENTRAL TO SW CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT. IN THE E
BASIN, E WINDS ARE MODERATE TO FRESH AND SEAS MODERATE WHILE IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER AND SEAS ARE SLIGHT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT. MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
MEANWHILE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W ATLANTIC COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE REGION ARE AIDING
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N TO
31N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W, AS WELL AS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OCCURRING E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES WITH CONVERGENT SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER
PRESSURE ALONG THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH IS CAUSING MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ATLANTIC. E OF 30W, THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS ARE IMPACTING WATERS N OF 20N,
INCLUDING NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS WHERE NE WINDS ARE STRONG TO
NEAR-GALE FORCE. GENTLE TO MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND 3-6 FT
SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND, ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND FLORIDA MON NIGHT, BEFORE
STALLING AND DISSIPATING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FRESH SW
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, MAINLY N OF 28N.
ADAMS
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