278
AXNT20 KNHC 261008
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SUN JUL 26 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF AFRICA AND NOW HAS AN AXIS ALONG
19W FROM 10N TO 17N, MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTICED FROM 12N TO 15N E OF 20W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS ALONG 47W, FROM 08N
TO 22W, MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED E OF THIS WAVE FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 37W AND 47W.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS ALONG 64W, FROM
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO VENEZUELA, MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS BEHIND THIS
WAVE FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 54W AND 64W, AND IS IMPACTING MUCH OF
THE WATERS NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS ALONG 74W, MOVING W
AT AROUND 15 KT. NO CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 16N16W AND CONTINUES
TO 12N25W TO 10N37W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N38W TO 08N44W AND
FROM 07N49W TO 05N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 20W AND 27W AND
08N TO 12N BETWEEN 29W AND 37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 03N TO 11N BETWEEN 49W AND 52W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N87W.
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SW BASIN. LIGHT TO GENTLE
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE BASIN, WITH MODERATE SE
WINDS IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE, E OF THE SURFACE THROUGH.
SEAS ARE 2 TO 4 FT WHERE THESE MODERATE WINDS ARE ONGOING,
OTHERWISE GENERALLY 2 FT OR LESS BASIN-WIDE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF WILL BRING
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS TO THE BASIN INTO MID-
WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
CONVECTION IN THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS DISSIPATED OVERNIGHT. SEE THE
ABOVE TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS FOR DETAILS ON CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR EASTERN BASIN.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA AND
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
AMERICA IS FORCING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES OVER THE
CENTRAL TO SW CARIBBEAN, GENERALLY S OF 15N, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO
8 FT BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS PREVAIL, WITH MODERATE SEAS OF
4 TO 6 FT. ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN, NE TO E WINDS ARE MODERATE OR
WEAKER, WITH SLIGHT SEAS. THE EXCEPTION THERE IS LOCALLY FRESH E
WIND ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS, WHERE SEAS ARE MODERATE FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY, WITH FRESH WINDS IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST TONIGHT,
ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
INTO MID WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN STARTING WED AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE AREA.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SAHARAN
DESERT AND THE 1029 MB AZORES HIGH HAS RELAXED ENOUGH SUCH THAT
GALE CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED IN THE VICINITY OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
AND NEAR THE MOROCCAN COAST. AS BOTH THE LOW AND HIGH WEAKEN
TODAY, STRONG NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MODERATE TO
FRESH INTO TONIGHT. THESE HIGHER WINDS HAVE GENERATED ROUGH SEAS
THAT IMPACT WATERS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS S TO 18N AND W TO ABOUT
35W. THESE SEAS WILL SLOWLY DECAY BELOW 8 FT THROUGH THE DAY.
CONVECTION E OF FLORIDA AND N OF AND E OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
GENERALLY DISSIPATED OVERNIGHT, BUT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
PREVAILS WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N45W TO 27N52W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE ITCZ AND MONSOON
TROUGH IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ALONG WITH
MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC S OF 26W. GENTLE TO
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND 3-6 FT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE
SE U.S. TODAY, THEN STALL. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL
BUILD N OF 25N THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BETWEEN THIS FRONT
AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE EAST.
KONARIK
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