098
AXNT20 KNHC 262305
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SUN JUL 26 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2305 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS ALONG 20W FROM 08N
TO 17N, MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
NEAR THE WAVE.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS ALONG 50W, FROM 06N
TO 22N, MOVING W AT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS SEEN NEAR
THIS WAVE.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS ALONG 66W, FROM
THE 17N66W SOUTHWARD INTO VENEZUELA, MOVING W AT 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED NEAR THE WAVE OVER THE OCEAN.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS ALONG 75W, MOVING W
AT 15 KT. NO CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 20N16W AND CONTINUES
TO 10N44W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N44W TO 07N49W, AND THEN
RESUMES FROM 07N50W TO 06N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 06N TO 13N AND BETWEEN 25W AND
35W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE, ESPECIALLY OFF WESTERN YUCATAN. SIMILAR STORMS ARE
FOUND IN THE EASTERN GULF, MAINLY NEAR FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REST OF THE BASIN, SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS. HOWEVER, STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS ARE
LIKELY NEAR THE MENTIONED STORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE GULF REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK, BRINGING GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. PULSING FRESH NE
TO E WINDS ARE LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BEGINNING ON MON AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS
DAILY AND DRIFTS WESTWARD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-8 FT ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE FOUND IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL. AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER CUBA, HISPANIOLA,
JAMAICA, FROM COSTA RICA TO VENEZUELA, WITH SOME OF THE STORMS
AFFECTING THE NEARBY WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT, WITH FRESH WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST TONIGHT, ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO MID-WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN STARTING
WED AS THE RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 68W.
MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT NORTH OF
27N AND BETWEEN 63W AND 77W. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF 23N AND BETWEEN 60W
AND 75W. IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS AIDING
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NE OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES FROM 15N TO 22N AND BETWEEN 53W AND 63W.
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE AZORES.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-8 FT
COVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC, WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS EVIDENT TO THE NW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE NORTH WATERS, MAINLY N OF 29N,
MOST OF THE WEEK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARIES REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
AREA. A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REGION
PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.
DELGADO
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