786
AXNT20 KNHC 092321
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC THU SEP 10 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS. ITS AXIS
IS NEAR 22W, SOUTH OF 20N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
10N TO 18N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ITS AXIS IS
NEAR 59W, SOUTH OF 20N AND EXTENDS INTO GUYANA, MOVING WESTWARD
AT AROUND 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE WAVE
AXIS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE RELATED TO THE
WAVE FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 56W AND 59W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG
68W, SOUTH OF 19N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. THE WAVE
SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 87W IS NOW GENERATING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
NORTHERN GUATEMALA. MORE INFORMATION IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (TWDEP).
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 20N16W, AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 09N37W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N37W TO 09N56W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION
NOTED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE, SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 30W
AND 56W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 28N88W, WITH A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO THE E OF THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR
TAMPA BAY, FL, AND FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO NEAR
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOTED OVER MOST OF THE GULF, MAINLY N OF 22N. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER MOST OF FLORIDA. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN
ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IN THE SW
GULF, A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM 24N92W TO 19N95W. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED
TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO THE START
OF NEXT WEEK, SUPPORTING MOSTLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT
SEAS. WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH WITH MODERATE SEAS OFF THE
WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE EVENINGS DUE TO A DIURNAL
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD FROM THE PENINSULA EACH NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS,
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTION HAS FLARED-UP OVER MOST OF CUBA, THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS, AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
SPINNING JUST SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IS ENHANCING THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE N OF THE
AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT STRONG WINDS, LOCALLY TO
NEAR-GALE FORCE, OFFSHORE COLOMBIA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING MODESTLY THROUGH FRI. ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THESE WATERS WITH THE PERSISTENT STRONG WINDS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL. LARGE
EASTERLY SWELL WILL ACCOMPANY A TROPICAL WAVE INTO THE TROPICAL N
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THU MORNING.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST REGION NEAR 31N56W AND CONTINUES
WESTWARD TO NEAR 29N70W WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT TO
NEAR 31N79W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS ARE FOUND N OF
THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN N OF 29N
AND E OF THE FRONT TO ABOUT 50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT, AND EXTENDS FROM 29N62W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND
CENTRAL CUBA. THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS
ARE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE, ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH
CENTERED LOCATED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N31W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER NW
AFRICA IS PROMOTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS N OF 25N AND E OF
30W, INCLUDING THE CANARY ISLANDS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
ARE OBSERVED OVER MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC, AND S OF 22N
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
SEAS ARE IN GENERAL MODERATE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FORECAST WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC STRENGTHENS, WINDS WILL INCREASE S OF 21N TO MODERATE TO
FRESH THROUGH THU. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE NW
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD.
GR
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