049
AXNT20 KNHC 100449
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC THU SEP 10 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0430 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 23W, SOUTH OF 20N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 61W, SOUTH OF 20N AND EXTENDS INTO
GUYANA, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG
70W, SOUTH OF 19N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. THE WAVE
SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY N OF
14N.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 20N17W, AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 09N37W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N37W TO 11N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARIES
AND W OF 21W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 28N88W, WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N94W TO 28N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE NOTED NEAR THESE FEATURES. TO THE SE, A DIFFLUENT PATTERN
ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MOST OF FLORIDA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS
DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GENTLE TO MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO THE START
OF NEXT WEEK, SUPPORTING MOSTLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT
SEAS. WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH WITH MODERATE SEAS OFF THE WESTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE EVENINGS DUE TO A DIURNAL SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD FROM THE PENINSULA EACH NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS,
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE.
CONVECTION HAS FLARED-UP OVER MOST OF CUBA, THE CAYMAN ISLANDS,
AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING JUST SOUTH
OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE
COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT STRONG WINDS, LOCALLY TO NEAR- GALE
FORCE, THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING MODESTLY THROUGH FRI.
ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL OVER THESE WATERS WITH THE PERSISTENT
STRONG WINDS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST REGION NEAR 31N54W AND CONTINUES
WESTWARD TO NEAR 29N69W WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT TO
NEAR 29N70W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE FOUND N OF THE FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN N OF 27N AND E OF
THE FRONT TO ABOUT 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS SOUTH OF THE FRONT,
AND EXTENDS FROM 26N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA. THIS FEATURE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WATERS ARE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE, ANCHORED BY A
1025 MB HIGH CENTERED LOCATED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N27W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURES
OVER NW AFRICA IS PROMOTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS N OF 25N
AND E OF 30W, INCLUDING THE CANARY ISLANDS. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED OVER MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC, AND S
OF 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN GENERAL MODERATE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
FORECAST WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NE WATERS
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THU. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIDGE, N OF 21N. MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS S OF 21N WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY THIS WEEKEND.
ERA
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