197
AXNT20 KNHC 101700
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC THU SEP 10 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 29W, SOUTH OF 20N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 25W AND 32W.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 65W, SOUTH OF 20N AND EXTENDS
INTO VENEZUELA, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 75, SOUTH OF 19N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. CONVECTION NEAR THIS WAVE IS PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH, DESCRIBED BELOW.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 20N16W, AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 13N22W, THEN NORTHWESTWARD TO 15N29W, THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 09N41W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N41W TO 07N59W.
ASIDE FROM CONVECTION NOTED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE,
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
04N TO 14N AND E OF 22W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO SEEN NW OF THE ITCZ, BETWEEN THE WESTERN END OF THE
FEATURE AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING S OF 13N AND W OF 76W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISIPPI RIVER TO NEAR GALVESTON, TX, WITH A WEAK 1014 MB LOW
ALONG THE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING N OF
THE TROUGH AND ALSO ALONG MUCH OF THE TX COAST. ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW FL TO NW CUBA, WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF.
OTHERWISE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS
SUPPORTING GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS. THESE WINDS ARE
GENERATING MAINLY SLIGHT SEAS OVER THE GULF WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, SUPPORTING MOSTLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.
STARTING THIS WEEKEND, WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH WITH MODERATE
SEAS OFF THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE EVENINGS DUE TO
A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD FROM THE PENINSULA EACH
NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA
AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH WINDS
LOCALLY NEAR GALE-FORCE OFFSHORE NW COLOMBIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS, AND SLIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SEAS, ARE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS E TO W ALONG
ABOUT 26N TO THE NW BAHAMAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL OVER THESE WATERS. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST REGION NEAR 31N48W AND CONTINUES
WESTWARD TO NEAR 28N56W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO NEAR
31N74W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED S OF 25N AND W OF 50W, AS
WELL AS E OF 50W AND S OF 20N. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A COLD FRONT OVER THE NE WATERS
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF
THE RIDGE, N OF 21N. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS S OF 21N WILL
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
ADAMS
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