829
AXNT20 KNHC 102248
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC FRI SEP 11 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE MOVING
WESTWARD OVER GUINEA, GUINEA BISSAU AND SIERRA LEONE REACHING
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE, A NEW TROPICAL WAVE
FOLLOWS THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 30W, SOUTH OF 20N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 67W, SOUTH OF 20N AND EXTENDS
INTO VENEZUELA, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KT. THE WAVE APPEARS TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 76, SOUTH OF 19N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. CONVECTION IS LIMITED NEAR THE WAVE
AXIS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 20N16W, AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 14N30W TO
09N42W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N42W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA NEAR
07.5N59W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 11N
BETWEEN 40W AND 56W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR GALVESTON, TX. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED OVER MOST OF THE GULF, MAINLY N OF 22N.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN OVER MOST THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE
THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
NOTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. OTHERWISE,
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE GULF WATERS SUPPORTING
GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS. HIGHER WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE
OBSERVED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE,
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE YUCATAN TROUGH. THESE WINDS ARE
GENERATING MAINLY SLIGHT SEAS OVER THE BASIN, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, SUPPORTING MOSTLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.
STARTING THIS WEEKEND, WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH WITH MODERATE
SEAS OFF THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE EVENINGS DUE TO
A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD FROM THE PENINSULA EACH
NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, PARTICULARLY S OF 16N, AND IN THE GULF OF
VENEZUELA. THREE ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATE SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT WITHIN
THESE WINDS, MAINLY OFFSHORE COLOMBIA. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE
ALSO EVIDENT ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS,
AND MODERATE SEAS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
CONVECTION HAS FLARED-UP OVER MOST OF CUBA, THE CAYMAN ISLANDS, AND
THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO OCCURRING OVER HISPANIOLA, AND OVER PARTS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN,
INCLUDING THE ATLANTIC COAST OF SE NICARAGUA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS E TO W ALONG
ABOUT 26N TO THE NW BAHAMAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL OVER THESE WATERS. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N48W TO 28N60W TO NEAR 30.5N75W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT, MORE CONCENTRATED FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W.
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS ARE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS ARE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE,
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED E OF BERMUDA NEAR
32N60W, AND ANOTHER 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED E OF THE AZORES
NEAR 37N22W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
LOWER PRESSURES OVER NW AFRICA IS PROMOTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE
WINDS N OF 27N AND E OF 25W, INCLUDING THE CANARY ISLANDS. MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED OVER MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC,
AND S OF 22N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN GENERAL MODERATE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FORECAST
WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SW INTO THE
WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS EXPECTED N OF
21N CLOSEST TO THE HIGH, AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES S OF 21N.
BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK, WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
GR
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