167
AXNT20 KNHC 112302
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SAT SEP 12 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 36W, SOUTH OF 21N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT AROUND 20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE WAVE
AXIS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG
76W, SOUTH OF 20N AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
OVER EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA.
A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 83W, SOUTH
OF 20N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AFFECTING
PARTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA AS WELL AS COSTA RICA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 18N16W, AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 10N42W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N42W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA NEAR 07N60W.
ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE, SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF THE ITCZ TO ABOUT 11N AND W OF
50W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE-UP OVER THE GULF REGION, MAINLY
NORTH OF 25N, AND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ALSO
HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND RUNS FROM 28N78W TO 24N83W.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. UNDER
THIS WEATHER PATTERN, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS WITH SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST, NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH EACH NIGHT OFF THE
W YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE TO A DIURNAL TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE SW
GULF. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE N GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, AS NOTED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS ARE 8
TO 11 FT PER ALTIMETER DATA OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
ELSEWHERE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE EVIDENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN. NUMEROUS SHOWERS, WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS,
ARE OCCURRING OVER CUBA AND JAMAICA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER HISPANIOLA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM RIDGING NORTH OF THE
AREA TO THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE STRONG TO LOCALLY
NEAR-GALE TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. FROM LATE SAT THROUGH MON NIGHT, TRADES OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG. ELSEWHERE,
WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N44W TO 25N53W TO 31N65W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
TROUGH, MAINLY N OF 25N BETWEEN 55W AND 70W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WATERS ARE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE, WITH THE MAIN
CENTER OF 1023 MB LOCATED NEAR THE AZORES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER NW AFRICA IS
PROMOTING MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS N OF 20N AND E OF 20W,
INCLUDING THE CANARY ISLANDS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE
OBSERVED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TO ABOUT 40W, AND ALSO JUST N
OF HISPANIOLA. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SEAS
ARE IN GENERAL MODERATE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FORECAST WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, TRADES NORTH OF HISPANIOLA INTO
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL BE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE, THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH SITUATED
ALONG 30N SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE
REMAINING FORECAST WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
GR
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