809
AXNT20 KNHC 141605
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC MON SEP 14 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1600 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC HAVE MERGED INTO A SINGLE TROPICAL WAVE, ACCORDING
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TROPICAL WAVE DIAGNOSTICS. THE WAVE AXIS IS
ALONG 50W, SOUTH OF 18N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED
FROM 11.5N TO 16N BETWEEN 48W AND 54.5W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 11N16W AND CONTINUES
TO 08N30W TO 09N52W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N52W TO NEAR 10N60W.
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS PRESENT FROM 05N TO 14.5N AND EAST OF 45W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 55W AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES.
..GULF OF AMERICA
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OFF VERACRUZ IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND EASTERN GULF. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS,
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE NE GULF WILL PERSIST INTO
TUE SUPPORTING RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BASIN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, WHERE A DIURNAL
TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD OFFSHORE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH
EVENING THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK, BRINGING NIGHTLY PULSES OF FRESH
NE WINDS. STARTING LATE TUE, STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
NE TO E WINDS OVER THE BASIN, WITH SPEEDS REACHING FRESH TO STRONG
AND ROUGH SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WED THROUGH THU NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FRI.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE HISPANIOLA,
AND PROMOTING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF
THE CARIBBEAN. MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN BASIN E OF 71W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN
SOUTH OF 15N.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND
WINDWARD PASSAGE. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NW BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS AND LOWER PRESSURES IN COLOMBIA COMBINE TO SUSTAIN FRESH
TO LOCALLY NEAR GALE-FORCE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 18N. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT MODERATE TO
FRESH MAINLY IN THE EVENINGS NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND LEE OF
CUBA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATES THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC,
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WEST OF 55W. MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE
NOTED OFF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA AND WESTERN CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG 49.5W IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 25N AND BETWEEN 44.5W AND
51W. GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING NEAR THESE
STORMS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 57W AND 59.5W.
ELSEWHERE, AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE PERSISTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC, SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER SEAS AND MODERATE SEAS
ACROSS THE AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATES
MUCH OF THE BASIN, FORCING FRESH EASTERLY WINDS OFF HISPANIOLA
AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ON TUE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE NW WATERS, INCREASING NE WINDS TO FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG AND CAUSING SEAS TO BUILD TO ROUGH N OF THE BAHAMAS AND W
OF 70W THROUGH THU. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK, A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NE
PORTION OF THE WATERS, BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS.
KRV
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