794
AXNT20 KNHC 142345
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC MON SEP 14 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 53W, FROM 07N TO 18N, MOVING WEST AT
10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM 09N TO
19N BETWEEN 47W AND 56W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 13N17W AND CONTINUES
TO 08N31W TO 09N48W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 07W AND 19W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 18W AND 45W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BASIN-WIDE. OTHERWISE, A 1019 MB
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SE LOUISIANA DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS,
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE, AND MODERATE SE WINDS W OF
94W. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE NE GULF WILL PERSIST INTO
TUE SUPPORTING RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BASIN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, WHERE A DIURNAL
TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD OFFSHORE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH
EVENING THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK, BRINGING NIGHTLY PULSES OF FRESH
NE WINDS. STARTING LATE TUE, STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
NE TO E WINDS OVER THE BASIN, WITH SPEEDS REACHING FRESH TO STRONG
AND ROUGH SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WED THROUGH THU NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FRI THROUGH SAT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND LOWER
PRESSURES IN COLOMBIA COMBINE TO SUSTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY NEAR
GALE-FORCE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 18N. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE ONGOING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND NE
NICARAGUA DUE TO THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE E PACIFIC MONSOON.
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS ARE ONGOING OVER THE E CARIBBEAN BEING
FUELED BY ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY NEAR GALE-FORCE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE
OR LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT
MODERATE TO FRESH MAINLY IN THE EVENINGS NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
AND LEE OF CUBA THROUGH MIDWEEK. WINDS MAY DIMINISH ACROSS THE
BASIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURES GRADIENT RELAXES, WITH SEAS ALSO SLIGHTLY SUBSIDING.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE BASIN, FORCING
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS OFF HISPANIOLA AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
A SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS IN THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC
EXTENDING FROM 24N49W TO 30N50W, WHICH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 26N AND BETWEEN
43W AND 59W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, ON TUE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE NW WATERS, INCREASING NE WINDS TO FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG AND CAUSING SEAS TO BUILD TO ROUGH N OF THE BAHAMAS
AND W OF 70W THROUGH EARLY THU. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THU
INTO FRI. DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK, A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
INTO THE NE PORTION OF THE WATERS, BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS WHILE
ALSO WEAKENING THE HIGH AND PRESSURE GRADIENT.
RAMOS
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