877
AXNT20 KNHC 152100
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC WED SEP 16 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 18W, SOUTH OF 20N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 17N AND BETWEEN 14W AND 25W.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 58W, SOUTH OF 21N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 20N AND BETWEEN 53W AND 60W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 15N18W AND CONTINUES
TO 08N27W TO 08N43W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N43W TO 12N55W.
ASIDE FROM CONVECTION NOTED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE,
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N
TO 10N BETWEEN 28W AND 43W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF WATERS. GENTLE TO
LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS, AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD BEHIND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WATERS. THE TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE-E WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS STARTING IN THE NE GULF TONIGHT AND SPREADING OVER
THE REST OF THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, A DIURNAL TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD OFFSHORE THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING THROUGH THU NIGHT, BRINGING NIGHTLY
PULSES OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE ACROSS THE BASIN FRI, ALLOWING FOR MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS DURING THE WEEKEND.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS, AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS, PREVAIL OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS,
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND LOWER PRESSURES IN
COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY NEAR GALE-FORCE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE FROM
11N TO 18N. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH MAINLY IN THE EVENINGS
NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND LEE OF CUBA THROUGH MIDWEEK. WINDS
MAY DIMINISH ACROSS THE BASIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURES GRADIENT RELAXES, WITH SEAS
ALSO SLIGHTLY SUBSIDING.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST NW OF BERMUDA SOUTHWESTWARD TO
ALONG 30N TO NORTHERN FLORIDA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS,
AND MODERATE SEAS, PREVAIL N OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 30N52W TO 26N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 20N. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, AND
SLIGHT SEAS, PREVAIL N OF 22N AND W OF 55W. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY WED, THEN WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM
BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS BY LATE WED. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS TO
BUILD TO ROUGH N OF THE BAHAMAS AND W OF 70W THROUGH EARLY THU.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THU INTO FRI. DURING THE MIDDLE TO
LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK, A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NE PORTION OF THE WATERS,
BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS WHILE ALSO WEAKENING THE HIGH AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
AL
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