850
AXNT20 KNHC 161023
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC WED SEP 16 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W, SOUTH OF 18N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 04N TO 15N AND BETWEEN 19W AND 31W.
A SHARP TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES,
LOCATED ALONG 61W, SOUTH OF 20N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM
12N TO 20N AND BETWEEN 54W AND 64W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 17N16W AND CONTINUES
TO 09N30W AND TO 08N44W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N44W TO 06N57W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARIES BETWEEN 33W AND 55W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED FROM TAMPA BAY TO
29N85W. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE GULF
WATERS, WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS OCCURRING OFF NW YUCATAN. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SE UNITED STATES SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS EAST OF 90W AND IN THE EASTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SE
UNITED STATES WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE-E WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS STARTING IN THE NE GULF THIS AFTERNOON,
SPREADING OVER THE REST OF THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH THU
NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE BASIN FRI INTO SAT,
ALLOWING FOR MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
DURING THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
BAHAMAS WILL MOVE TOWARD FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF WATERS..
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE FOUND IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WINDWARD PASSAGE AND LEE
OF CUBA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
DIVERGENCE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN CUBA, HISPANIOLA AND SURROUNDING WATERS. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS SEEN IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SW CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL FORCE FRESH
TO LOCALLY NEAR GALE-FORCE TRADES AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS ACROSS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND SEAS SUBSIDE ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THE
WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURES GRADIENT RELAXES. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO NEAR COCOA BEACH,
FLORIDA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-9 FT ARE
NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT. A BUOY NEAR 31N71W RECENTLY REPORTED 9 FT.
MEANWHILE, A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SE BAHAMAS AND
HISPANIOLA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF 62W AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY TRADE AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED SOUTH OF 25N AND
WEST OF 55W. ELSEWHERE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORTS SLIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN THE REST OF THE SW
NORTH ATLANTIC.
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
25N AND BETWEEN 47W AND 57W. THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED NORTH OF THE AZORES. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE EVIDENT SOUTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 40W. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
OCCURRING IN THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND DISSIPATE. THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE
UNITED STATES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL RESULT IN FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS TO BUILD TO ROUGH N OF THE
BAHAMAS AND W OF 70W TODAY THROUGH THU. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
LATE THU INTO FRI, AS BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES THE BASIN INTO THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SE BAHAMAS
AND HISPANIOLA WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHWESTWARD. .
DELGADO
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