048
AXNT20 KNHC 161531
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC WED SEP 16 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1330 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W, SOUTH OF 16N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 08N-16N BETWEEN 23W-32W.
A SHARP TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS E CARIBBEAN, LOCATED ALONG
64W, SOUTH OF 22N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN
56W-63W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC FROM COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR
15N18W TO 09N39W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N39W TO 09N54W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 08N-16N
BETWEEN 23W-32W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE UNITED STATES IS HELPING TO FORCE FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS IN THE NE GULF WITH SEAS 5-6 FT.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER MOST OF THE GULF NORTH OF 22N
EAST OF 95W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE GRADIENT RELATED TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THAT STRETCHES SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL GENERALLY ALLOW FOR FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE NE
GULF THIS AFTERNOON, SPREADING TO ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHERN
GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS
THE BASIN FRI INTO SAT, ALLOWING FOR MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS DURING THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, A RATHER
BROAD MID TO UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL MOVE TOWARD
FLORIDA THU THROUGH FRI LEADING TO INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WATERS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA
ALONG WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA-VENEZUELA IS FORCING ONLY
FRESH TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS 6-8 FT.
ADDITIONALLY, THE TRADES ARE LOCALLY FRESH OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES WITH SEAS 4-6 FT THROUGH THE PASSAGES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE SHARP TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 13N-18N
BETWEEN 56W-63W. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS
3-5 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING SOUTH OF 12N
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM
THE NE PACIFIC.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN SOUTH
AMERICA WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY NEAR GALE-FORCE
TRADES ALONG WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS OVER MOST OF THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE, MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SEAS
SUBSIDE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN AS THE PRESSURES GRADIENT
RELAXES. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
REACH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND EXPECTED
TO BE ACCOMPANIED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
THE N BAHAMAS. WINDS POLEWARD OF THE FRONT ARE NE FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG WITH SEAS 6-8 FT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 20N-31N BETWEEN 55W-75W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FRONT AS WELL AS A VIGOROUS TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) EXTENDING FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES TO NEAR BERMUDA.
ELSEWHERE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N36W TO 31N34W WITH
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 30W-42W. WINDS
ARE N STRONG TO NEAR-GALE ALONG THE AGADIR COAST OF MORROCCO WITH
SEAS 5-7 FT. WINDS ARE ALSO N FRESH TO STRONG THROUGH THE CANARY
ISLANDS WITH SEAS TO 5 FT. ELSEWHERE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL
NORTH ATLANTIC ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH SEAS 3-6 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS WILL
BRING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILD SEAS TO A ROUGH
STATE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND WEST OF ABOUT 70W THROUGH THU.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE THU INTO FRI AS BROAD RIDGING
DOMINATES THE BASIN INTO THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, A BROAD MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
IN COMBINATION WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHWESTWARD.
LANDSEA/AGUIRRE
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