922
AXNT20 KNHC 162033
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC THU SEP 17 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 26W, SOUTH
OF 16N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 19N BETWEEN
23W AND 31W.
THE AXIS OF AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 65W, SOUTH
OF 22N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 58W AND 66W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 16N17W TO 09N37W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N37W TO 09N60W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION NOTED IN
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 41W AND 47W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, PREVAIL IN THE
NE GULF. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS, AND SLIGHT SEAS, ARE
NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE NE GULF WILL SPREAD WESTWARD OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRI INTO SAT, LEADING TO MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS DURING THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, A
RATHER BROAD MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD FLORIDA
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THU THROUGH FRI AS IT TRANSITIONS TO LOW
PRESSURE. THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WATERS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA
ALONG WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA-VENEZUELA IS SUPPORTING
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE OVER THESE WATERS. MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, ARE ELSEWHERE EAST OF 80W. W OF
80W, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS, AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS, PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN SOUTH
AMERICA WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY NEAR GALE-FORCE
TRADES ALONG WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS OVER MOST OF THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE, MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SEAS
SUBSIDE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN AS THE PRESSURES GRADIENT
RELAXES. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
REACH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND EXPECTED
TO BE ACCOMPANIED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
THE N BAHAMAS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS, AND MODERATE TO
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS, PREVAIL N OF THE FRONT. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS, AND SLIGHT SEAS, ARE SE OF THE FRONT N OF 22N AND W
OF 55W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, ARE NOTED NEAR
THE CANARY ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS W OF THE
FRONT THROUGH THU. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE THU INTO FRI AS
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN INTO
THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, A BROAD MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED
JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS IN COMBINATION WITH A VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS TO LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE MOVING IN A WEST TO
NORTHWEST DIRECTION.
AL
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