821
AXNT20 KNHC 192133
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SAT SEP 19 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 45W FROM 02N
TO 21N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 41W AND 50W.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 82/83WW SOUTH
OF 19N TO WESTERN PANAMA, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10-15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
15N TO 20N BETWEEN 77W AND 85W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 14N17W TO
09N27W TO 15N45W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION NOTED IN THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION ABOVE, SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 14W AND 21W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS, AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS, PREVAIL N OF 25N.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE FOUND S OF 25N.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK RIDGING NORTH OF THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER-LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE ELSEWHERE E OF 80W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND W OF 80W.
FOR THE FORECAST, A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL MAINTAIN
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
THE ATLANTIC WATERS N OF 20N ARE DOMINATED BY THREE TROUGHS. THE
FIRST ONE IS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NORTHWARD TO 28N73W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS TROUGH. FARTHER EAST, ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N60W TO
25N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH. A THIRD TROUGH IS FROM 29N43W TO
23N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS
ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 45W WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT
SEAS PREVAILING OVER THESE WATERS. EAST OF 45W, GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS, AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS FORECAST WATERS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FORCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WATERS WEST OF 65W FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.
AL
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