074
AXNT20 KNHC 200914
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 45W FROM 06N
TO 21N, DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED
BELOW IN THE ATLANTIC SECTION.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 84W TO THE S
OF 20N ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO NE COSTA RICA, MOVING
WESTWARD 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 78W AND 83W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 14N16W TO
07N35W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N35W TO 07N45W, THEN RESUMES W OF
A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 13N53W TO 11N61W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION
NOTED IN THE ATLANTIC SECTION BELOW, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 17W AND
35W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A 1011 MB
LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE W-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N94W. AN E TO W
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE LOW. A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG AND WITHIN 90 NM SOUTH
OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACTIVE
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF, RELATED TO DIVERGENCE ALOFT NEAR AN UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER FLORIDA. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 2-4 FT
SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK RIDGING NORTH OF THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. AN
UPPER- LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MOSTLY THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH
SURFACE TROUGHS N OF THE BASIN INTERRUPTING THE TYPICAL AZORES-
BERMUDA HIGHS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 4-6 FT SEAS ARE FOUND
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AND 2-4 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. SOME CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR A
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 84W AS DESCRIBED ABOVE, AND ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF CUBA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH
TO TRADES OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
FOR AWARENESS PURPOSES, NEWLY NAMED TROPICAL STORM FAY IS
CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS IS WELL SOUTHWEST OF
THE AZORES NEAR 33.7N 33.1W AT 5 AM EDT, MOVING NE AT 4 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA, FOCUSED IN PART ON A PAIR OF
SURFACE TROUGHS OVER THOSE RESPECTIVE AREAS. FARTHER EAST, ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH REACHES FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 28N48W TO 25N55W TO
29N65W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W, FOCUSED ALONG
A SURFACE TROUGH REACHING FROM 30N60W TO 23N50W. IN ADDITION, THE
UPPER PATTERN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 40W TO 45W ALONG A TROUGH FROM 30N40W TO
23N46W. FARTHER SOUTH, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE WITHIN 75 TO 150 NM IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 14N53W. BROAD
RIDGING COVERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
3-5 FT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC DISCUSSION AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PROMOTE ONLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS FORECAST WATERS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FORCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE WATERS WEST OF 70W THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM FAY IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY APPROACH
AND MOVE INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS TO NEAR 30N 36W TUE NIGHT,
BUT BY THEN AS A REMNANT LOW.
CHRISTENSEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page