630
AXNT20 KNHC 220225
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0220 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HEAVY RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA, JAMAICA, AND CUBA: A MID TO
UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE
RELATIVELY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE PRESENT, AND IN
ADDITION THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALL OF THESE FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO ENHANCED MOISTURE FUNNELING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SEPTEMBER 22ND THROUGH
THE 25TH. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT
LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL, BUT FOR NOW HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA, AS WELL AS ACROSS
SOUTHERN GUATEMALA, FAR WESTERN HONDURAS, AND FAR NORTHERN EL
SALVADOR. CURRENTLY, HEAVY RAINFALL IS ONGOING OVER WESTERN
JAMAICA AND INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA. HEAVY RAINFALL IN THESE
REGIONS WILL RAISE CONCERNS FOR LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
AND LANDSLIDES. PLEASE REFER TO LOCAL WEATHER SERVICES AS WELL AS
THE INTERNATIONAL DESK AT THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 32W/33W FROM
05N TO 19N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 22N46W TO
07N50W, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ON THE NORTHERN END OF THIS
TROPICAL WAVE FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN 44W AND 47W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
13N17W SOUTHWESTWARD TO 11N25W. SEGMENTS OF THE ITCZ AXIS EXTEND
FROM 11N25W TO 10N30W, FROM 10N33W TO 08N48W, AND FROM 07N51W TO
06N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 09N TO 14N
BETWEEN 20W AND 25W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT, ANCHORED BY 1013 MB HIGH PRESSURE
OFF PANAMA CITY, FLORIDA, PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA GENERATING
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE GULF. AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS, ALONG
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST GULF UNDER DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FORCE GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THU. A VIGOROUS UPPER-
LEVEL LOW WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SE GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. A COLD FRONT SHOULD DIP INTO THE NE GULF THU NIGHT AND FRI,
ACCOMPANIED WITH LITTLE TO NO INCREASE IN THE WINDS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, LARGE AREAS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS
JAMAICA AND INTO WESTERN CUBA. THIS ACTIVITY IS DUE TO ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE
OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN GULF TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. ISOLATED POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, A
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS ACROSS THE BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS REMAIN EAST OF 80W. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL WEST OF 80W.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE AREA TO THE COLOMBIAN LOW IS FORCING ONLY MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
FOR AWARENESS, TROPICAL STORM FAY IS CENTERED NEAR 33.1N 32.2W AT
21/2100 UTC OR 390 NM SW OF THE AZORES, MOVING SSW AT 3 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE VISIT
HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE INFO ON TROPICAL STORM FAY.
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF WITH A
SMALLER LOBE OVER GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA. DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT EAST OF THE TROUGH AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ARE
SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA WEST OF 65W. DRY,
SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS PREVAIL BETWEEN 50W AND 65W, EXCEPT FOR A
SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST OF BARBADOS NEAR 16N56W, ALONG
A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS CENTER FARTHER
EAST NEAR 26N49W, SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN 44W AND 47W ON THE NORTHERN END OF A
TROPICAL WAVE. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION, A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ATLANTIC SUPPORTS MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES. SEAS OF 3 TO
6 FT ARE OCCURRING WITH THESE TRADES.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA-
AZORES HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE ITCZ IS PROMOTING GENTLE
TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS FORECAST WATERS THROUGH WED NIGHT. A
VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF 65W FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE FROM THE SE UNITED STATES COAST
LATE WED NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM 31N72W TO THE NW BAHAMAS FRI
MORNING AND FROM 31N69W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SAT MORNING. FRESH
TO STRONG N WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON THU
AND FRI, BEFORE DIMINISHING ON SAT.
MEANWHILE, FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST, FAY WILL WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR 31.6N 34.1W TUE MORNING, THEN BECOME A
REMNANT LOW AND MOVE TO 30.7N 36.0W BY TUE EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS
NEAR THE REMNANT LOW WILL DIMINISH AS IT MOVES TO 30.1N 37.8W WED
MORNING, 29.7N 39.6W WED EVENING, 29.5N 41.2W THU MORNING, AND
29.5N 42.5W THU EVENING. THE REMNANT LOW OF FAY WILL CHANGE LITTLE
IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 29.5N 44.3W BY LATE FRI.
CHRISTENSEN
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