517
AXNT20 KNHC 301018
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC WED SEP 30 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1005 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A WESTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 83W, SOUTH OF
21N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF THE GAMBIA
NEAR 13.5N17W AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO 15N28W TO 11N38W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N38W TO 06N48W TO 06N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 05N TO 19N AND BETWEEN
19W AND 46W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OFF VERACRUZ AND THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
SUPPORTS MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS, WHILE MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND LOWER PRESSURES IN TEXAS AND MEXICO
SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF
WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE BASIN BY
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE WESTERN GULF WATERS, POSSIBLY
MOVING INTO THE BASIN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH WEAKENING
WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS AHEAD OF IT. INCREASING WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE VERY SLOW MOVING FRONT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ALREADY DESCRIBED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION ABOVE, STRONG STORMS ARE NOTED OFF PANAMA AND NW COLOMBIA,
WHILE ONLY PASSING WEAK SHOWERS ARE SEEN IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA SUSTAINS
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN,
INCREASING TO STRONG SPEEDS OFF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULFS
OF HONDURAS AND VENEZUELA. SEAS OF 4-8 FT ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN, EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT SEAS IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND WINDWARD
PASSAGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE TROPICAL WAVE AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 75W
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN
THE REST OF THE BASIN. LATER, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE INTO
THE GULF OF AMERICA AND WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING
IN A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AS THE RIDGE
RETREATS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS WILL THEN DOMINATE THE
BASIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A DIVERGENCE FLOW ALOFT AND PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUE
TO SUSTAIN STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA. FARTHER EAST, SHOWERS DOT THE WATERS
BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 3-6 FT SOUTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 55W.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE WEST OF 55W.
THE REMNANTS OF FAY CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 23N51W AND
SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE CENTER. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE FOUND FROM 20N
TO 28N AND BETWEEN 44W AND 55W. MEANWHILE, MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE NOTED NORTH OF 29N AND BETWEEN 35W AND 50W
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM HANNA CURRENTLY NORTH OF OUR
WATERS. ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC, WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS PREVALENT SUSTAINING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF 25N.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. MEANWHILE, THE
REMNANTS OF POST- TROPICAL CYCLONE FAY CURRENTLY EAST OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS MAY MOVE WEST OF 55W BY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MAY DISSIPATE LATE THIS WEEK. LOOKING
AHEAD, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY REACH THE WATERS OFF NE FLORIDA
EARLY NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY.
DELGADO
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