662
AXNT20 KNHC 011709
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC THU OCT 1 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ANALYZED ALONG 31W FROM
06N TO 20N, MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 26W AND 38W.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ANALYZED ALONG 66W
FROM 19N SOUTHWARD, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING E OF THE WAVE AXIS TO
ABOUT 62W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 11N16W AND CONTINUES
TO 11N36W. THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM 10N44W TO THE COASTAL BORDER
OF VENEZUELA AND GUYANA. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
SEEN FROM 03N TO 11N AND E OF 20W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
DIVERGENCE ALOFT, ABUNDANT MOISTURE, AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA COMBINE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF WATERS S OF 28N AND E OF 88W. A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG THE E COAST
OF MEXICO SUPPORTS MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. OTHERWISE, A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH ESE WINDS AND 3-6 FT SEAS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF TODAY,
SPREADING TO THE N GULF ON FRI. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE SE WINDS UP TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG OVER THE E
AND CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. AN WEAK COLD MOVING
ACROSS TEXAS WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, ALLOWING THE WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF TO DIMINISH ON SAT AND SUN. ON SUN, THE FRONT
WILL REACH THE NW GULF, EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
JUST OFFSHORE THE TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER TO NEAR VERACRUZ ON MON
MORNING. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ONLY BE N TO NE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON CONVECTION IN
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS DRAWING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC INTO THE W CARIBBEAN, WHICH
CONTINUES TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W
OF 75W. THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS THE
FAR SW CARIBBEAN, SUPPORTING SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 13N
BETWEEN 75W AND 82W. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CARIBBEAN AND MODERATE SEAS. WINDS UP TO STRONG SPEEDS ARE
OBSERVED OFF NW COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULFS OF VENEZUELA AND
HONDURAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN
WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF 80W THROUGH FRI. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THE
COLOMBIAN LOW WILL TIGHTEN SOME BETWEEN TONIGHT AND SAT NIGHT.
THIS WILL FORCE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REACHES THE WATERS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SLACKEN AGAIN FROM SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TOWARD
ONLY MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF 70W.
MEANWHILE, THE REMNANTS OF FAY ARE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 22N
TO 28N AND BETWEEN 53W AND 60W. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS
AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE FOUND IN THE AREA DESCRIBED. TO THE SE, A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 18N33W TO 11N43W IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE
TROUGH AXIS.
IN THE REST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC, MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY
WINDS PREVAIL S OF 20N AND WEST OF 30W, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE
WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS ALL AREAS E OF 30W AWAY FROM THE MONSOON
TROUGH. AREAS NORTH OF 20N ARE SEEING GENTLE TO MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS PREVAIL, OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE FL PENINSULA IS FORCING MODERATE TO FRESH SE
WINDS. SEAS ARE 6-10 FT ACROSS AREAS N OF 20N AND E OF 30W, WHERE
POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY SWELL IS SUPPORTING THESE HIGHER WAVE
HEIGHTS. SEAS ARE 4-7 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINING ATLANTIC
AWAY FROM THE REMNANTS OF FAY.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF 75W
THROUGH AT LEAST FRI. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE TROUGH - ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF FAY - WILL SUPPORT SIMILAR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS NORTH OF 22N AND
EAST OF 65W. TRADES JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL BOOST TO FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE QUIESCENT THROUGH MON. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT MAY
REACH THE WATERS OFF OF NE FLORIDA MON NIGHT, WITH INCREASING
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
ADAMS
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