033
AXNT20 KNHC 012309
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC THU OCT 1 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W FROM 06N TO 20N, MOVING WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG
67W, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS HELPING TO
INDUCE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER PUERTO RICO. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS ARE ON THE E SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO 11N36W. THE ITCZ
IS ANALYZED FROM 08N45W TO NORTHERN GUYANA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 10W
AND 20W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE, COMBINED WITH A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT,
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF, MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE SE PART OF THE BASIN,
INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. CONVECTION IS ALSO FLARED-UP OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS NOTED. OTHERWISE,
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF TONIGHT, SPREADING
TO THE N GULF ON FRI AND SAT. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE SE WINDS UP TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG OVER THE E AND
CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT AND FRI. A WEAK COLD MOVING ACROSS TEXAS
WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, ALLOWING THE WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF TO DIMINISH ON SAT AND SUN. ON SUN, THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
NW GULF, EXTENDING FROM ALABAMA TO JUST OFFSHORE THE TEXAS-MEXICO
BORDER TO NEAR VERACRUZ ON MON MORNING. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD ONLY BE N TO NE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS DRAWING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN,
WHICH CONTINUES TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY W OF 80W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MORE CONCENTRATED OVER
WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
AREA COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH MODERATE
SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF 80W THROUGH FRI. A MODERATE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN
AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL FORCE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES
OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH
SAT NIGHT. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES THE WATERS NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN AGAIN FROM SUN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO ONLY MODERATE TRADES ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
SUSTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF
70W. MEANWHILE, A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM FAY IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE WATERS FROM 22N
TO 29N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W. WHILE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY, DRY AIR AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT RE-DEVELOPMENT. MAINLY MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
A STATIONARY FRONT IS REACHING THE CANARY ISLANDS. MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE NEAR THE FRONT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE,
WITH THE MAIN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OF 1029 MB LOCATED NE OF THE
AZORES. A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS ANALYZED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR 35N70W. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS ARE
OBSERVED BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
NE WINDS ARE AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 32W.
ELSEWHERE MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS PREVAIL WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF 75W
THROUGH AT LEAST SAT. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE TROUGH- ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF FAY - WILL SUPPORT SIMILAR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS NORTH OF 22N AND
EAST OF 65W. TRADES JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL BOOST TO FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE QUIESCENT THROUGH MON. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT
MAY REACH THE WATERS OFF OF NE FLORIDA TUE MORNING WITH INCREASING
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
GR
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