561
AXNT20 KNHC 020440
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC FRI OCT 2 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0400 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W FROM 06N TO 20N, MOVING WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG
68W, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS HELPING TO
INDUCE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINLY N OF 16N.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES
WESTWARD TO 08N29W. THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM 06N38W TO 02N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N
TO 11N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE, IS PROMOTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E GULF. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE NOTED
WITH THIS CONVECTION. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION HAS FLARED-UP
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS NOTED. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS APPROACHING THE NW GULF WATERS, WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED AHEAD OF IT ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS
AND NW MEXICO. OTHERWISE, A RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E GULF TONIGHT,
SPREADING TO THE N GULF ON FRI AND SAT. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SE WINDS UP TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG OVER
THE E AND CENTRAL GULF THROUGH FRI. A WEAK COLD MOVING ACROSS
TEXAS WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, ALLOWING THE WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF TO DIMINISH FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. ON SUN, THE FRONT WILL
REACH THE NW GULF, EXTENDING FROM ALABAMA TO JUST OFFSHORE THE
TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER TO NEAR VERACRUZ ON MON MORNING. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT SHOULD ONLY BE N TO NE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS DRAWING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN,
WHICH CONTINUES TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY W OF 80W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MORE
CONCENTRATED OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF 80W THROUGH FRI. A MODERATE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN
AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL FORCE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES
OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH
SAT NIGHT. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES THE WATERS NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN AGAIN FROM SUN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO ONLY MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
SUSTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF 70W.
TO THE E, A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 27N57W TO 20N63W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE TROUGH. A 1017 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N34W WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE, WITH THE MAIN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
OF 1028 MB LOCATED NE OF THE AZORES. A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANALYZED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 28N51W. MODERATE TO FRESH
E TO SE WINDS ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. MODERATE TO
FRESH NE WINDS ARE AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 35W.
ELSEWHERE MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS PREVAIL WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF 75W
THROUGH AT LEAST SAT. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE TROUGH - ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF FAY - WILL SUPPORT SIMILAR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS NORTH OF 22N AND
EAST OF 65W. TRADES JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL BOOST TO FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE QUIESCENT THROUGH MON. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT MAY
REACH THE WATERS OFF OF NE FLORIDA TUE MORNING WITH INCREASING
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
ERA
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