495
AXNT20 KNHC 020937
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC FRI OCT 2 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0925 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W, SOUTH OF 19N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
PRESENT FROM 07N TO 15N AND BETWEEN 32W AND 42W.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W, SOUTH OF 20N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
NEAR THIS WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 17N17W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 11N31W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS EVIDENT FROM
08N TO 17N AND BETWEEN 43W AND 57W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SE MEXICO, COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE, PROMOTE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE E GULF. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOWER
PRESSURES IN TEXAS AND MEXICO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. THE STRONGEST
WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE FOUND NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE SUPPORTS MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SE WINDS OVER MUCH OF
THE BASIN. HOWEVER, A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS TEXAS WILL WEAKEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, ALLOWING THE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF TODAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. LATE THIS WEEKEND, THE FRONT WILL REACH THE NW
GULF, EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO JUST OFFSHORE THE
TEXAS- MEXICO BORDER TO NEAR VERACRUZ ON MON MORNING. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT SHOULD ONLY BE N TO NE MODERATE TO FRESH AND MODERATE SEAS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SE MEXICO AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE
FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY W OF 80W.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA, EXCEPT FOR LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA
HIGH NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL FORCE FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF
OF HONDURAS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES THE
WATERS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN
AGAIN FROM SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO ONLY MODERATE
TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
SUSTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF 70W. TO THE E,
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 29N55W TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND
OUTER BANKS FORCES MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS SOUTH OF 28N AND WEST OF 70W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BROAD RIDGE, ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF
THE IBERIAN PENINSULA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF 22N AND WEST OF 30W.
MODERATE TO FRESH N-NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE OCCURRING
NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND EAST OF 30W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF 75W
THROUGH AT LEAST SAT. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE TROUGH - ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF FAY - WILL SUPPORT SIMILAR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS NORTH OF 22N AND
EAST OF 70W. TRADES JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL BOOST TO FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE QUIESCENT THROUGH MON. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT
MAY REACH THE WATERS OFF OF NE FLORIDA TUE MORNING WITH INCREASING
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
DELGADO
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