375
AXNT20 KNHC 021657
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC FRI OCT 2 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37/38W, SOUTH OF 19N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
PRESENT FROM 07N TO 14N AND BETWEEN 33W AND 40W.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W, SOUTH OF 20N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 18N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N21W AND
THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO 12N34W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N40W
TO 10N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
EVIDENT FROM 09N TO 14N AND BETWEEN 52W AND 60W, WHILE MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ITCZ.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SE MEXICO, COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE, PROMOTE NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
OVER MUCH OF THE GULF E OF 92W. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES IN TEXAS AND MEXICO SUPPORT MODERATE
TO FRESH, LOCALLY STRONG SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BASIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE FOUND NORTH
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
FOR THE FORECAST, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST WEST OF THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA MOVING WESTWARD WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE GULF AND A COUPLE OF
TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF IS ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY
FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO EXIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NW GULF THIS WEEKEND, AND STALL FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
NW GULF AND TO THE SW BY LATE SUN. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY RIDE UP
ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO MON ENHANCING WINDS
SOME IN THE NW GULF AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. WINDS ELSEWHERE BEHIND
THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS. LIGHT
TO MODERATE ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SE MEXICO AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE
FUEL SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY W OF 80W. HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA, EXCEPT
FOR LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. WINDS ARE LOCALLY
STRONG OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA, AND ALSO IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF 80W TODAY. A MODERATE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN
AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL FORCE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES
OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH SAT
NIGHT. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES THE WATERS NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN AGAIN FROM SUN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO ONLY MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
SUSTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF 70W. TO THE E,
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 33N51W TO NEAR 20N65W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 22N BETWEEN 55W AND
70W. HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND OUTER BANKS FORCES
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS SOUTH OF 28N
AND WEST OF 70W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BROAD RIDGE, ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF
THE IBERIAN PENINSULA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF 22N AND WEST OF 30W.
MODERATE TO FRESH N-NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE OCCURRING
NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND EAST OF 30W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF 75W
THROUGH AT LEAST SAT. MEANWHILE, THE COMBINATION OF A SURFACE
TROUGH, REMNANTS OF FAY, AND A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SIMILAR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS NORTH OF ABOUT 22N AND EAST OF
70W. TRADES JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG SPEEDS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, RATHER TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WED. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT
MAY REACH THE WATERS OFF OF NE FLORIDA TUE MORNING, FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING WINDS, POSSIBLY TO NEAR GALE, AND BUILDING SEAS.
ADAMS
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