958
AXNT20 KNHC 030423
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SAT OCT 3 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0400 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W FROM 05N TO 20N, MOVING WESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS MAINLY S OF
12N.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG
74W FROM 07N TO 20N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 19N16W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 09N25W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N25W TO 08N35W,
THEN RESUMES FROM 09N44W TO 09N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS EVIDENT FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN 44W AND 54W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUPPORTS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE GULF REGION.
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FLARED-UP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, AND
ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF TAMPICO. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND RUNS FROM 29N90W TO A 1007
MB LOW PRES NEAR 19N95W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH
AND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS ALLOWING
FOR MOSTLY FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO EXIST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF WATERS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY MODERATE,
EXCEPT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SEAS IN THE 1 TO 3 FT RANGE
ARE NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SUSTAIN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOWER
PRESSURES IN THE GULF WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SE
WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF INTO SUN. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NW GULF THIS WEEKEND,
AND STALL FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NW GULF AND TO THE SW BY
LATE SUN. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY RIDE UP ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MON ENHANCING WINDS SOME IN THE NW GULF AND IN
THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY INTO
MIDWEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
BEGINNING TUE, MAINLY IN THE NE AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF, AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD BEHIND IT. LIGHT TO MODERATE ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS PULLING
UP ABUNDANT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH MODERATE SEAS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. A
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND ABUNDANT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO SAT MORNING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH
NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN, AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA WILL BRING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH SAT
NIGHT. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES THE WATERS NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN AGAIN FROM SUN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE
BASIN. TRADES MAY PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS OFF COLOMBIA AND
IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA MON NIGHT.
OF NOTE, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS HISPANIOLA THIS WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY OVER HAITI
AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA. A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
TOWARD HISPANIOLA AND DEVELOP A CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR THE ISLAND
BY SUN. THIS COMBINED WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS
AS DAYTIME HEATING, LOCAL SEA BREEZES AND MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE LIFTING
WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE AREA.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH LOCATED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA FROM 28N64W TO 20N69W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH
AXIS, WITH MODERATE NE TO E WINDS N OF 25N AND W OF THE TROUGH
AXIS TO 65W. TO THE E, ANOTHER TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 31N51W TO
27N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE TROUGH.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
RIDGE, WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS JUST N OF THE AREA. MODERATE TO
FRESH E WINDS ARE OBSERVED JUST OFFSHORE HISPANIOLA, AND BETWEEN
EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT. ELSEWHERE
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS PREVAIL WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF 75W
THROUGH AT LEAST SAT. MEANWHILE, THE COMBINATION OF A TROUGH SE OF
BERMUDA AND A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND NORTH OF ABOUT 22N AND EAST OF 70W. TRADES JUST NORTH
OF HISPANIOLA WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG SPEEDS
TONIGHT AND ON SAT NIGHT. OTHERWISE, RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WED. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT MAY REACH
THE WATERS OFF OF NE FLORIDA TUE MORNING AND STALL. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NUDGE SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE RESULTANT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE FRONT LIKELY TO INDUCE STRONG
NE WINDS, WITH POTENTIAL TO NEAR GALE FORCE, AND ALONG WITH
BUILDING SEAS OFFSHORE NE FLORIDA.
ERA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page